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JonSCKs
Posted 4/29/2015 08:47 (#4543822 - in reply to #4543772)
Subject: Hofmeister: Cut in CAPEX is going to show up in higher Crude prices..


I believe this is somewhat related.. it was the US Commodity boom that was DRIVING the economy.. HIGHER Commodity prices drove employment.. and manufacturing.. CAT.. Deere.. CIH.. XOM.. etc.. now that the rug has been pulled out.. that driver is gone.. and it is showing up in the GDP.. Anyone wanna buy a $50 k new pickup in this environment?  Anywho.. maybe we'll snap back a little.. we have not found equilibrium in prices.. according to some such as John Hofmeister..  I thought this article was interesting..

John Hofmeister the former President of Shell Oil was interviewed the other day and had this to say about Crude Prices..

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-04-28/oil-may-push-past-100-a-barrel-in-2016-hofmeister

"I do think we are underestimating prices going forward.. We may continue to bounce around in the 50's and high 40's now for another month or two
We have cut back Significantly in our drilling programs.. CAPEX..
If we are going to have demand
Some of the Oil companies will have trouble getting financing to resume drilling.. 
So I think we are going to find ourselves SHORT in 2016.. much more than some currently see now..

I think by later this year we'll be pushing upwards of $80.. and by later part of 2016 we may be pushing $100 crude.

$126 BILLION has been cut out of CAPEX..  Revenue has been cut in HALF.. and people do not have the $$$ to spend.. thus you have firms that have cut their Drilling in HALF.. and they just do not have the $$$ to resume drilling..

KSA is restoring order.. they are punishing their competitors.. Iran.. Russia.. US Shale producers.. they are harming their competitors.."

(summarized.)

We'll see.. It's Wednesday so we'll get another inventory report out of Cushing.. reports are that the build is slowing significantly.. while demand is coming back online.. subject to the economy.

So are we going to repeat the 1980's bust that left us reliant upon the Middle East again for cheap Crude after the bust decimated the US Oil patch?

http://fortune.com/2015/04/27/why-this-oil-price-collapse-could-be-different/



Edited by JonSCKs 4/29/2015 08:50
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