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| Its really hard to predict. Those 85% factors confuse forecasts. The on line spreadsheets will give you any answer you want if you put in the right guesses at futures prices.
Dr. Steve Johnson has said that ARC-CO will pay more in the first two years, than PLC will in all five years of the program. He's an extension type, doesn't stir any soil or live on crop income.
My tenant and I have decided on PLC with corn base because we think commodity prices are more likely to fall below the fixed PLC thresholds while the annual olympic average thresholds of ARC-CO will be tumbling off the highs from a couple years ago more rapidly that prices will be falling.
Its a crap shoot and we won't know if anything will pay until about October 2019. The rules apparently are carefully written to be confusing to show to WTO there's no subsidy here and to congress, there's no need to budget money to pay for this part of the farm bill and to us to snooker us into thinking there will be some help if prices or yields tumble. ARC-O includes annual county yields. In my county there is enough diversity yields will hold up to most all conditions. PLC ignores yields and has fixed price thresholds. If there's a wide area crop disaster like a drought, PLC won't pay, and ARC-CO probably won't pay because the prices will rise.
The thing is to pick one and you're stuck with it, but don't count on any checks from USDA, treat any that show IF they show as a gift. Don't spend it before its cleared the bank.
Gerald J. | |
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ARC-PLC heavy Wheat base?
