| OldMcdonald - 2/20/2015 15:17
LOL.
So Why does George Soros take a position? Because he doesn't know something? Because he has no clue? or Is it because he has a belief how it will work out?
Of course, he has a "belief" that the trade will work out. But he knows that there is always a good chance that his analysis is not right, or is right but the timing can be wrong, or . . . any number of things that he didn't see.
He never feels like he "KNOWS" anything (from the two books I have read that he has written).
Now, let's hypothetically say that you have been SURE that interest rates *had to* go higher - because with all of the newly created money, investors would *demand* higher rates because inflation just *had to* occur. I use this because this has been the mind-set of market participants for about 35 years now. And, these investors have lost money betting on this for about 35 years. If you were in the markets betting on this "wisdom", and if you had been in the futures markets, you probably have gone broke quite a few times over the last 35 years. Now, if you don't believe me, just look at a roll-adjusted contract (long term - condensed to monthly) of the 30 year bonds and compare it to a nearest futures contract. In this case, betting on something (that looked so obvious) would have been a money loser for three and a half decades. But, of course, to you, trend means nothing - right? And, not only have interest rates done the opposite of what was expected, you have to add in the money lost due to the long term bias that rates *just had to* go up. And, that is a lot of money in addition to the amount the rates actually fell.
This is one example of why an attitude like the one you have is so dangerous to your financial well-being. Now, if you don't use leverage (futures), you will undoubtedly just shrug the loss off, or even not acknowledge it. John calls buying some PMs insurance, and I agree with him - it is just a cost of buying some protection. But if you bought gold a couple of years or so ago, you have a loss, and if you bet substantially on what you *KNEW* to be true then (when the news was the most bullish), you have a big loss. You may choose to not acknowledge that loss, but it is, nonetheless a loss - even if you have not sold that gold and plan on holding it until you are proven "RIGHT".
This is just being honest with ourselves. |
Martin Armstrong - A History of Ranting, Wild Predictions, and of Course, Fraud
