"Oh, I have some ideas about how things might unfold. however, I was not blessed with the mind that you have where I can be so sure of myself. And, no, I try not to tell anyone they are wrong about what they do in the markets. What I do try to do, however, is to point out where I see a glaring false sense of *knowing* what markets *must* do. If you bet heavily on inflation, that's fine with me. Just don't come on a forum and tell everyone that it is an obvious sure thing bet. When you make these huge assumptions and call them facts, you only show your ignorance of how markets actually work."

"Oh, I have some ideas about how things might unfold."

Ok. So what are they?

Listen, This is very simple. When someone takes a position in the market, it INHERENTLY MEANS, they think they KNOW something. IE that the market doesn't KNOW.

That's the nature of taking a position CFDR, because you think you KNOW something that the market doesn't. Else, there would never be any reason to take a position, would there? And there would be no market.

No one ever said, the market MUST do something. It's what I THINK it will do, thanks for the words in my mouth / keyboard.

So to recap this discussion, you don't have a position as a safe haven / don't know what one might be, but are able to criticise those who do claim to KNOW something (IE taking a position as a result of that KNOWING), but yet offer up none of your own thoughts. Only just the remarks per the bolded comment above, that you post to essentially "point out" that someone claiming to know something, can't possibly be right because the market is too complex to "Know" how anything will play out.

Well, the thousands of people that ACTUALLY DO take a position, ACTUALLY DO receive a return on that position, as a result of KNOWLEDGE, will tell you that you are full of it if you believe that. I think that about wraps it up for me, your thread.