| OldMcdonald - 2/20/2015 11:25
You can't have it both ways and say that all safe havens are already bid up, but then acknowledge that gold has been a poor bet because the price is still low. So which is it, bid up, or underperforming price?
Are you so immersed in your own mind that you cannot see that, at $1200, it is bid up to where market value is? You are making the *huge assumption* that your reality is right and that the majority of market participants are *wrong*. Can't you see that this is the price the wisdom of the marketplace puts on gold as a safe haven? What are the risks that countries will have to sell gold in a real economic downturn? You posted a link about Russia buying gold - and implied how ominous that could be for us here. What if Russia is just buying gold to simply exchange dollars for gold? But, no, you *are sure* of what you believe about Russia buying gold. Well, the reality is that you - or me for that matter - don't have a clue why Russia is buying gold. If we get lucky, maybe once in awhile we'll guess something right.
That's the whole point of owning $1200 gold. Because it hasn't been bid up yet to reflect that increased risk
Wow - you really *know* that - huh? *This* is the real difference between you and me - you assume that you *know* what is really driving these markets.
Which then of course, leads me to believe you think cash or bonds and nominals will out- perform (the contra to my strategy).
I don't have any idea whatsoever how you can deduce this from anything I've written. Again, at least the more you write, the better idea I get about how your mind works.
SO IT COMES DOWN TO THIS: If you really have no idea what will happen (and if you do, than what is it?) then you really have no grounds to say whether someone will be right or not in their convictions... DO you?
Oh, I have some ideas about how things might unfold. Maybe unfortunately, however, I was not blessed with the mind that you have where I can be so sure of myself. And, no, I try not to tell anyone they are wrong about what they do in the markets. What I do try to do, however, is to point out where I see a glaring false sense of *knowing* what markets *must* do. If you bet heavily on inflation, that's fine with me. Just don't come on a forum and tell everyone that it is an obvious sure thing bet. When you make these huge assumptions and call them facts, you only show your ignorance of how markets actually work. |
Martin Armstrong - A History of Ranting, Wild Predictions, and of Course, Fraud
