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Napanee, Ontario | " IMHO, your conviction that the dollar *had to* fall relative to other currencies was simplistic."
That was never my conviction. You can look through my posts if you like. My conviction was/ is that all currency will fail, as long as money continues to be printed by those respective economies around the world. Which it is.
" Every "safe haven" that might exist gets bid up to where the risk/uncertainty is bid into the price, and it no longer can be considered a "safe haven."
Well, that's just not a true statement.
You can't have it both ways and say that all safe havens are already bid up, but then acknowledge that gold has been a poor bet because the price is still low. So which is it, bid up, or underperforming price? That's the whole point of owning $1200 gold. Because it hasn't been bid up yet to reflect that increased risk (And yes, another reason it hasn't is because of a massive concerted effort to suppress the price, but anyways). If TRUE risk was actually priced in, people wouldn't be touching bonds or nominal paper with a 10 foot pole, and gold wouldn't be 1200. Bonds have no tangible value other than the confidence you will get your money back in the future plus interest. With bonds trading at record prices, it doesn't look like there is any lack of confidence does it? Or any worry of risk about the overwhelming amount of debt and problems paying it. It's a massive disconnect IMO.
In fact, that's the beauty of buying REAL safe havens right now, because most of the money is buying bonds and stocks, front running central banks on carry trades. People believe that bonds are safe simply because there are central banks willing to print money to backstop their price. If you remove that element from the equation, NO ONE IS BUYING THREM. Go read the headlines from Europe a couple years ago about Italy, Spain, Greece yields spiking. It was default for them had the ECB not stepped in. NO one was buying any new issues. That is what real risk is... it is not even close to being priced into those assets currently.
Anyways, this is just going back and forth. Again. after all this, and all of our other discussions, I still have no idea what your position is, other than others who have one - specifically relating to currencies collapsing and tangible assets outperforming - are going to be wrong about it because the market surprises people being that it is a complex system. Your support is by pointing out the price of the USD, some quotes from Martin Armstrong... and again the line that markets are too complex to have a simple approach like the one above.
Which then of course, leads me to believe you think cash or bonds and nominals will out- perform (the contra to my strategy). To which you claim you don't have any answer wat will happen, again, and that you don't know what to own.
SO IT COMES DOWN TO THIS: If you really have no idea what will happen (and if you do, than what is it?) then you really have no grounds to say whether someone will be right or not in their convictions... DO you? | |
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Martin Armstrong - A History of Ranting, Wild Predictions, and of Course, Fraud
