| OldMcdonald - 2/19/2015 15:36
If you can point out how badly wrong I am, then what are you doing that's so right?
This is the difference between us, IMHO. You feel that you need to take a position and stick with it. You seem to want to ignore the signs that do not confirm your bias. You have said in no uncertain terms that trend makes no difference to you. It seems to me that you have taken the simple idea of the Fed creating lots of new money and decided that the dollar *has to* fall - and most likely lose world reserve currency status - and, that gold *has to* go significantly higher - and if it isn't doing it *now*, it's because it is being manipulated.
Did I get any of that wrong?
As far as my position, the one consistent thing I think I have said is that the system is extremely complex and difficult (if not impossible) to forecast. I have said that, even if Armstrong sounds like he can forecast ahead, I have doubts about that. That does not mean that I won't read what he says. Do you know of anyone who has been more right about what has happened recently in these markets? I remember telling John that, probably like him, most of my wealth is in farmland. I would seriously consider selling some - if only I had a clue where to put the money. ZIRP has priced itself into every asset available, it seems to me. I believe Armstrong that, at some point, gold will have its day. While I certainly don't know if it is true, I suspect that there are still too many bulls around for the correction low to be in place - but that's more a guess than anything. I own some stocks, but I would love to lose money on them in a correction so I could feel comfortable buying more. I believe the bull trend in the dollar will continue, however, and that might make it difficult to get a significant correction in stocks. I believe Armstrong is right when he says gold will "have its day" when confidence is lost in the government - but that doesn't look imminent. But, cash is problematic - for reasons we all know about. The world-wide money flow into the dollar sure does look to me like it will continue, however.
In summation - I wish I had a clue what to do. That in no way means I am not making decisions - it is just that I am honest about this and realistic when I look at the charts. I have a problem when someone says something that I think is simplistic - like all the new money created will cause the dollar to collapse and gold to skyrocket - and do it now. We *need* a new world's reserve currency. As Michael Pettis says, having it be the USD is a serious burden to us.
I don't have any recommendations for anyone as to where to put money. "To every thing there is a season" - I fear we are coming into the season to "rend" - and, as I've said several times, there is no safe haven. |
Martin Armstrong - A History of Ranting, Wild Predictions, and of Course, Fraud
