As long as central banks can keep confidence that they have things under control and as long as nothing blows up, there likely will be no problems. If the derivative market does blow up, then central banks are going to have some real tough choices to make. Do they "bail in" and stiff depositors to cover the banks losses and risk the wrath of the population? They have already taken steps to legally do so and have had trial balloons (Cypres). But there is still a very real risk enough ire of the population could spill over into problems they could not keep contained. After all, bail-ins will likely bankrupt small businesses that have their operating money in checking accounts. Of course the friendly "new" bank freshly capitalized could always offer a "low cost long term loan" to cover their needs since all their cash is now vaporized. (sarcasm intended with the last statement). They could do partial bail-in's, where small depositors under FDIC insurance levels could be saved by the taxpayer. After, all that would be needed is printing up however much money was needed out of nothing (expand the Fed balance sheet a few trillion or maybe a quadrillion just to be safe), loan it to the Treasury, and the Treasury make the FDIC whole to pay out the small depositors. This at least would not get the ire of the entire population against them (because FDIC insurance "saved" them). Most people would not understand their money was being debased and they themselves would be footing the bill instead of the banks. Bank profits via insurance they pay normally fund FDIC insurance, but surely any problem of size would require a government bail out of FDIC. Or we might just have another bank bail out like before. Politicians might be able to convince enough of the population that the last go round worked so well, why not just do it again? Free money to save the banks. No problem. (there is that sarcasm again) It has not caused inflation to date (cough, cough) according to current inflation statistics (cough cough) so what could go wrong? (sarcastic rhetorical question). John
Edited by John Burns 2/19/2015 12:29
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