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NCND | I bought 11 calls for may in a way to protect my existing hedges should this brazil thing give us a go higher. Cheap insurance and if we take off and volatility increases I will make money on the calls not by exercising them but by selling them for a profit. Its a gamble but it gives me upside with defined loss parameters should we ride the brazil story out of this hole we are in currently or if we have early planting and the thought becomes we lose bean acres to corn.
All guessing but we still have that 1130ish gap that is still open.
We still have insurance month upcoming so that is wildcard. According to Robs chart we don't get moving on years similar to this until the end of february. However being I have sales on the books this can add to my bottom line if we do rally while leaving hedges in place. I won't capture all the upside but in the advent we do rally hard I will not be totally hung out to dry on hedges in place and can add in some additional profit from them.
I will keep selling the rallys until that doesn't work. The calls are short term ways of playing a turn to. Just can't buy too many to eat all the profits up if things keep going down:)
Appreciate all the thoughts and work.
Good luck.
Edited by vailcat 1/31/2015 10:51
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Can anyone make a case for a Nov15 bean north of 1050?
