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| I probably read your post in a way that you did not write it. This medium is ok, but it is a poor alternative for those of us who would like to sit around a table and visit over beers.
I think, again, that much of the differences here are about what time window we are talking about. Predictions in the short term are rarely all that correct, and, IMHO, anything farther out than that are really only a guess - and a guess that is not worth much of anything. I say that based on my experience modeling markets, and also on my reading about chaotic systems and the impossibility of making successful predictions in those systems. I believe that what Martin has been saying is that those people who have been predicting increasing inflation (leading to hyperinflation) *soon* based on the increasing money supply have been using simplistic linear thinking. This goes along also with the USD's reserve currency status being lost *soon*. My memory is that you have been in this camp - but I will admit it is just my memory of what you have been writing. Here, again, sitting around a table over beers would be much better than what we are doing.
Does this *have to* end in hyperinflation? Or even really serious inflation? Sure, it looks like it now - but - when Gerald Ford was wearing his WIN button, it looked like it then too. As we "drive" along this highway, are the signs pointing to runaway inflation? Hardly. So, do we *have to* end up with serious inflation? Even if *a lot* more money is created, how can we begin to anticipate what world-wide demand there will be for it? Remember, no one - including the Fed - saw the demand that would simply absorb the huge amount of money that has already been created. The only thing I would say is that, if you are certain of that, you have a *lot* more confidence in your ability to make long term predictions in a chaotic system than I have. | |
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John - inflation/deflation - probably one after the other
