It has already all but touched the ML of the expansion fork (right terminology?) at 1.

If it's to continue on it's current trajectory it will have to go through the ML to get to the Hagopian somewhere around 2. Then if it turns at the Hagopian it will be initiating another Hagopian on the expansion fork?

I guess it has not closed below the ML of the expansion fork. Perhaps that means it has not touched it yet. So perhaps it will not actually touch the UML of the expansion fork until 3?

I imagine that's all too detailed. It will do something somewhere between here and there:)