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| I planned to sell instead of store and reown on paper for a lower price. My strategy would have me reasonably covered if prices took off like they did last winter. I don't need all the gain to be happy. The other issue is that most of us now have a much lower breakeven price (closer to $3.40 than $4) and making profitable sales is a good thing.
Anyway, I did sell some using a bonus premium deal through the elevator which puts me at $3.70 cash and I have to sell the same amount for $3.80 cash next fall if prices are near $4. At the time and fundamentally it looks like a safe play. Sell a call and pocket the money (what the elevator did) with little chance the 2015 corn being contracted. However, since apparently the world revolves around me and few other poor marketers, the sell signal must of set off fire works in Chicago and the the price went up. I'll wait for the 20/20HS report to confirm that the price did go up though - trusted source and worth every penny!
So here we go again, lots of corn, lots of beans and prices just made significant jumps (I will only mention that I'm about out of beans for well over my breakeven, but the last sales appear to be 30 cents ago now - and that was yesterday). Naturally this all fits some model or, once again, folks with money bought the market because it appears to be a value. Btw value is completely subjective and could be based on some fundamental reason or the most popular shoe color at Macy's - I'm going shopping to get some market direction.
Looks like having calls bought (or something) as a 'just in case' and setting some sort of floor at/above breakeven is about the only way to stay in business and capture some gains for no reason. I still want the downside protected because the same shoe shopping traders can take the market down and leave it there. Jon will get his $11 but it will be for no reason at all - take it when it comes because there is no predicting what happens next.
In the MT days of predicting $10 corn and peak corn it was clear a train wreck of supply was slowly happening in front of us. Guys like me got out for great prices, but choose not to see where the high would end up. This time around there is no train to watch
Edited by Pat H 11/12/2014 05:37
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OK who told the CME I sold some corn?
