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SC Iowa | dazed and confused.....but not disagreeing with Jon's earlier ideas it was going to take a pretty big flat price move to bring the volume of beans to market that was needed to meet both export and crush demand on the front end....
the late season tightness of bean supply meant it was going to take an even better rally to get the farmer to sell......
now----unless you are convinced that SA is going to have crop issues, these are rallies that need to be rewarded.....especially when combined with basis strength we usually see in the post-harvest time period up to early/mid December
in the end.....you HAVE to be respectful that the US soybean carryout on Sept 1, 2015 is going to be far different than what we have been dealiing with recent years......so once again, unless you can predict the weather, holding beans (and corn) to mid to late summer is a high-wire act that is better watched than being a part of the show....
the F/N spread may narrow further, but eventually there is going to be a carry in the bean complex....may be months, but it will happen
and I like some scale up selling in that X15 contract as well.....
Ray J | |
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soys ray j
