Finally got time to dust off my export tables.. and update.  Even I was surprised that we are AHEAD of where we NEED to be EVEN IN WHEAT to hit USDA's numbers.. (sorghum is the only one behind..)

From the data source: http://apps.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/wkHistData.htm

Edit let me explain how this works.. the Total Shipments column is what we did each year.. For Instance in 2010 we moved 39.99 mmt's of Soybeans.. by THIS DATE.. 10/28/10 we had shipped 8.5 mmt's with 20.5 mmt's on the books as sold.. thus shipped + sold to be shipped = 29 mmt's.. thus we SHIPPED an ADDITIONAL 39.99 - 29. = 10.99 mmt's throughout the REST of the YEAR.. I AVERAGE 2009's 16.3 mmt's 10's 10.99, 11's 18.2, 12's 10.4 and 2013's 11.3 to get 13.438 mmt's of EXPECTED additional Shipments to TODAY's 35.7 + 13.438 = 49.138 mmt's or 1,805 myn bushel EXPORT PACE.  (clear as mud?) and do this for all the rest of the commodities listed below..

In soybeans we are 85 myn bu ahead of pace.. 136 myn bu ahead on Corn and 31 myn bu ahead on wheat of where we need to be to hit USDA's latest WASDE numbers updated yesterday.

We're ON TRACK!!

btw.. I started this last year..

http://talk.newagtalk.com/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=438765&posts=31&highlight=exports&highlightmode=1#M3535083

Those INITIAL projections of 1,746 beanies, 1,997 corn and 1,152 Wheaties were almost laughed off at the time.. USDA was at 1,475 beans, 1,450 Corn and 1,100 wheat but my model came ALOT closer to the final numbers of..  1,647 beans 1,917 corn and 1,176 wheat..  "just say'in."

My model was 99 myn bu too high on the beanies vs USDA at 172 too low.

model was 80 myn bu too high on the corn vs USDA at 467 myn bu too low.

and Wheaties I was 24 myn bu too LOW vs USDA at 76 myn bu too low.

So Handicapping my forecast.. USDA would appear to have room (very EARLY in the season yet..) to come UP on Corn.. 50 myn and come up on the Wheaties 50 myn bu also.  Since my model overestimated beanies by.. 100.. I'll stand pat for now.. but if we keep turning out 100 myn bushel SALES WEEKS as we have the past two.. then.. we'll have room to move higher..