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S Illinois | Are we taking bets on the where the final China US soybeans imports will end up? From this point forward last year China took 7.5MMT above where their commitment level on 10-24-13. Using last year as a guide, between now and Feb 1 we will ship all of what China has on the books currently and then some which will fall before your Feb 1 deadline. These wholesale cancellations have not happened before and I would not look for them to happen this year in spite of the exchange rate. The more likely scenario is China just stops buying any US beans after Jan 1. In the last few years this amounts to 1-3 MMT. This scenario is a little less likely now because of the delayed planting in SA. China actually typically does not buy US beans after Feb 1. anyway unless there are SA logistical problems or SA crop problems. | |
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farmpro your on
