Death comes to us all. Life's but a walking shadow | JonSCKs mentioned this possibility a few weeks ago but I didn't think the short speculators would wait as long as they apparently have. I was going to post this evening but I wasn't sure what to make of it so I'll put it out here and let others comment.
Below is the COT soybeans futures & options combined up to 10/14 (most recent) as well as last weeks net changes in aggregated open interested between 10/14 and 10/17.
The remarkable thing about this is that while daily volume ranges between 300,000 and 600,000 contracts the net change between Nov14 and the following Friday "this crop" contracts is only + 8300-some. So in the 4 day period 2,000,000 contracts changed hands for a net change of 8300. What makes this more remarkable is that total open interest for this crop is only about 600,000 contracts, less than a third of the total 4 day volume. Seems like a good deal of churn for not much change.
What is clear about the COT chart is that the non-reportable (aka, small speculators) are very short and will need start covering those contracts one way or another after Oct. 20th when the limits go off the Nov14 contract. As far as I can see they are depending on new farmer selling (commercial shorts) or rolling the Nov14 to the next contracts. If as I suspect farmers aren't selling (Can somebody provide some evidence??) then they will need to buy from the market (aka managed money, other reportables) which would seem to present an opportunity for somebody. Remember even if they roll they still need to buy the new contract and somebody must take the other side.
I don't know how this will play out but it'll be interesting to watch.
 (soy nc long&shorts 10-14-14-page-001 (1).jpg)
 (soy net posit 10-14-14-page-001 (1).jpg)
 (delta OI 10-14 to 10-17 soys-page-001 (1).jpg)
Attachments
----------------
 soy nc long&shorts 10-14-14-page-001 (1).jpg (122KB - 108 downloads)
soy net posit 10-14-14-page-001 (1).jpg (50KB - 116 downloads)
delta OI 10-14 to 10-17 soys-page-001 (1).jpg (42KB - 100 downloads)
|
Post Harvest..
