Death comes to us all. Life's but a walking shadow | If you plan for the worst you won't be in a position to take advantage of the best (or even the mediocre). For many years I was too conservative, always afraid of the worst and as a consequence never able to gain from even the most moderate price rallies or turnarounds. There is always that sweet spot in the middle where the downturn doesn't hurt too much.
One fact to keep in mind is that there are some 7.5 billion people on this planet a good percentage of whom live in cities and otherwise don't produce their own food. They eat everyday and need what you produce. Another thing to keep in mind is that despite the WASDE report and current world food stocks history indicates that surpluses aren't likely to last more than a year or so before something happens and it all changes.
Another fact is that commodity futures has come to be dominated by momentum traders who alway try to push the market too far in one direction or another. Couple this with the fact that this point in the swing happens to coincide with a major correction in the world money supply doesn't help. People justify the futures market as a mechanism to price future demand and ration supply. Unfortunately, futures traders who dominate the market don't think very much about this when they trade. They just read their charts and trade accordingly. Supposedly the magic "invisible hand" will arrive at the correct price. Couple this with the fact that 20-30% of each of the trader categories consists of a half dozen entities violates the basic assumption of the "invisible hand" makes you wonder just how "efficient" the futures market really is.
Hopefully by spring people will have sorted out this interest rate thing and the supply will look a little different so maybe give it a little time before getting really depressed. |
getting ready for $6.75 beans-----------2015
