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95% sold on corn but want to capture potential upside
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Ben Riensche
Posted 10/11/2014 12:50 (#4120132 - in reply to #4120045)
Subject: RE: 95% sold on corn but want to capture potential upside


Jesup, IA
The history of big crop years is that the cash price will bottom during the last half of harvest, but the futures prices will drift lower through the winter as we debate how big this crop is (even if it isn't).

So what would rally the futures market? Less acres next year, or a crop production problem. The market is probably already considering less acres, so factors that would drive the market meaningfully higher are probably a ways off.

Just by your comments ("have not used futures for a while"), I suspect you are more interested in having a slice of a $1 or more move up in the market, not capture a twenty cent rally. So my recomendation in the next two paragraphs is made accordingly.

If I were in your shoes, I'd be happy I sold at higher prices, and enjoy the fact that if you replace your position in call options, you can wait a bit and let the option prices decay.

Why buy so much time value? Wait until some "hard down" days later this winter and scale into some long call options.
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