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| FWIW, a couple years ago while attending winter farm shows in the era of $6.50 plus corn, I couldn't help but make the observation that every whiz bang, yield enhancing equipment attachment dealer and snake oil salesmen had elbow to elbow traffic at their booths. This was the winter of '12, and I distinctly remember telling my buddy we should short the corn market, because everybody was sparing no expense trying to get that last 15 bu. per acre. I even got in the fray by spending $40,000 in attachments for a 12 row planter. Every single high tech latest greatest doohickey possible got bolted on. Sure am glad I didn't short the market tho, as the epic drought ensued, and all that foo foo juice and magic dust didn't make much difference. But the point is,if Mother Nature would have cooperated somewhat, we probably would have set new records that year, as no expense was spared on that crop. My predication this year at farm shows is there will be plenty of room in front of the booths this winter. Most of the dollars spent a couple years ago won't be spent this year. Myself included. I've already lowered my yield goal by 20 bu. on corn. The economic threshold for $ spent trying to achieve that last 20 bu. just isn't there. I'm going to be paying close attention to economic thresholds, and when the curve line starts falling off on yield vs input, that's where my last $ is spent on that input, period. My goal next year is not record yield, but to try and blow the doors off yield vs input ratio. I have no doubt I can raise 180 bu. corn on 120 lbs. N. given somewhat normal, not even exceptional growing conditions. Highest economic threshold here for N is the first 120 lbs., then curve starts falling off. Combine maybe record low inputs, (how many guys gonna skip p/k altogether) with more than likely a much lowered corn acreage number, and the planets are not lining up too well for a large corn crop. Just some thoughts I'm having this morning. Flame away. | |
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Automatic yield reduction next year- how much?
