The ONLY thing I go off is the data.. which LAST year we used.. if my table is correct (??) 4,308 myn bushels in Q1.. or 4,308 / 13 = 331 myn bushels per week.  I'm looking at a similar number for this year at.. 4,365 or 335 myn bushels per week.

It would seem that we ramp up from Q4 useage of..2702 myn bushels.. 208 myn bu per week to.. some high number..  My weekly estimates are WAG's.. and I backload them.. I assume that users will not "pay up" for anything over what they absolutely need.. so we should be starting to fill the bottoms of some users bins by now.. everywhere harvest has started.. However not much progress yet in Iowa and North West..  Nebraska just getting started.. etc..

This is the problem for shorts.. that there is harvest selling but so far not enough to overwhelm useage.. by very much.. The bears need a big dump of harvest and hence harvest pressure sales to cover their shorts..

The situation is probably very similar in the Soybeans.. even more so as demand is so front loaded.. we got to get the beanies out of the field to a port and on a boat to china.. and we need to do it NOW...

later..