I did what I love doing, started looking at the numbers.

NOTE: I DO NOT really understand the markets to the level most of you do.

But what I can do is look at historical data. https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/759872/Historical%20Yield%20vs%20price.xlsx

What I did is start making factors based on  yield/price and bu harvested/price, and then averaged it out for 5 yr, 10 yr, and 18 yr(the most nass had data available for)

If you only follow this model, markets should be looking to buy, but the one thing I did not have is carryout.

If anyone has a good source of this number based on years I would love to have it.