| EIA data is out.. Production is down pretty hard.. to 889 on maintenance and tight corn stocks..(??) | 2014-Jan | 01/03 | 919 | 01/10 | 868 | 01/17 | 905 | 01/24 | 900 | 01/31 | 895 | | 2014-Feb | 02/07 | 902 | 02/14 | 903 | 02/21 | 905 | 02/28 | 894 | | | | 2014-Mar | 03/07 | 869 | 03/14 | 891 | 03/21 | 885 | 03/28 | 922 | | | | 2014-Apr | 04/04 | 896 | 04/11 | 939 | 04/18 | 910 | 04/25 | 898 | | | | 2014-May | 05/02 | 894 | 05/09 | 922 | 05/16 | 925 | 05/23 | 927 | 05/30 | 938 | | 2014-Jun | 06/06 | 944 | 06/13 | 972 | 06/20 | 938 | 06/27 | 953 | | | | 2014-Jul | 07/04 | 927 | 07/11 | 943 | 07/18 | 959 | 07/25 | 954 | | | | 2014-Aug | 08/01 | 902 | 08/08 | 931 | 08/15 | 937 | 08/22 | 913 | 08/29 | 921 | | 2014-Sep | 09/05 | 927 | 09/12 | 931 | 09/19 | 889 | | | | |
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=w_epooxe_yop_nus_mbbld&f=w While blender's input is up.. | 2014-Jan | 01/03 | 756 | 01/10 | 797 | 01/17 | 802 | 01/24 | 815 | 01/31 | 801 | | 2014-Feb | 02/07 | 816 | 02/14 | 806 | 02/21 | 835 | 02/28 | 846 | | | | 2014-Mar | 03/07 | 841 | 03/14 | 845 | 03/21 | 857 | 03/28 | 850 | | | | 2014-Apr | 04/04 | 852 | 04/11 | 848 | 04/18 | 853 | 04/25 | 865 | | | | 2014-May | 05/02 | 846 | 05/09 | 890 | 05/16 | 886 | 05/23 | 895 | 05/30 | 862 | | 2014-Jun | 06/06 | 869 | 06/13 | 891 | 06/20 | 891 | 06/27 | 883 | | | | 2014-Jul | 07/04 | 883 | 07/11 | 851 | 07/18 | 872 | 07/25 | 877 | | | | 2014-Aug | 08/01 | 875 | 08/08 | 890 | 08/15 | 864 | 08/22 | 889 | 08/29 | 880 | | 2014-Sep | 09/05 | 850 | 09/12 | 846 | 09/19 | 886 | | |
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=w_epooxe_yir_nus_mbbld&f=w led to a drop in stocks.. | 2014-Jan | 01/03 | 16,138 | 01/10 | 16,078 | 01/17 | 17,018 | 01/24 | 16,932 | 01/31 | 16,739 | | 2014-Feb | 02/07 | 17,062 | 02/14 | 17,203 | 02/21 | 17,024 | 02/28 | 16,611 | | | | 2014-Mar | 03/07 | 15,908 | 03/14 | 15,277 | 03/21 | 15,653 | 03/28 | 15,875 | | | | 2014-Apr | 04/04 | 16,407 | 04/11 | 15,952 | 04/18 | 16,518 | 04/25 | 17,212 | | | | 2014-May | 05/02 | 17,140 | 05/09 | 17,302 | 05/16 | 16,990 | 05/23 | 17,489 | 05/30 | 18,250 | | 2014-Jun | 06/06 | 18,422 | 06/13 | 17,850 | 06/20 | 18,183 | 06/27 | 18,204 | | | | 2014-Jul | 07/04 | 18,286 | 07/11 | 17,945 | 07/18 | 17,940 | 07/25 | 18,587 | | | | 2014-Aug | 08/01 | 18,260 | 08/08 | 17,760 | 08/15 | 18,251 | 08/22 | 17,317 | 08/29 | 17,673 | | 2014-Sep | 09/05 | 18,021 | 09/12 | 18,805 | 09/19 | 18,592 |
I'm going to try once again to compute ethanol exports.. I used the weekly data the last time but felt that there's so much slack in transportation that it was very.. unreliable.. I'm switching to the 4 week average production and blender's input matched to the stocks number.. which may not change anything much.. but..??? It's worth a look... It does not match well with EIA so.. ?? maybe need to tweak it some more...?? Suggestions..?? So.. take a look.. | | | | | | | | | | | | | 4 week ethanol averages | | | | | | | | | | | ---------1,000 bbls / day ------------ | ---------------1,000 bbls ------------ | | | | | | Production | Blender's | | Stocks | | Exports | Monthly | Actual | | | | | Input | gap/day | gap/week | change | (Inports) | Computed | EIA | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 4/18/2014 | | | | | | 16,518 | | | | | | 4/25/2014 | | 911 | 848 | 63 | 441 | 17,212 | 694 | -253 | | | | 5/2/2014 | | 910 | 853 | 57 | 399 | 17,140 | -72 | 471 | | | | 5/9/2014 | | 906 | 863 | 43 | 301 | 17,302 | 162 | 139 | | | | 5/16/2014 | | 910 | 872 | 38 | 266 | 16,990 | -312 | 578 | | | | 5/23/2014 | | 917 | 879 | 38 | 266 | 17,489 | 499 | -233 | | | | 5/30/2014 | | 928 | 883 | 45 | 315 | 18,250 | 761 | -446 | 173 | 1,263 | | 6/6/2014 | | 934 | 878 | 56 | 392 | 18,422 | 172 | 220 | | | | 6/13/2014 | | 945 | 879 | 66 | 462 | 17,850 | -572 | 1,034 | | | | 6/20/2014 | | 948 | 878 | 70 | 490 | 18,183 | 333 | 157 | | | | 6/27/2014 | | 952 | 884 | 68 | 476 | 18,204 | 21 | 455 | 2,014 | 1,431 | | 7/4/2014 | | 948 | 887 | 61 | 427 | 18,286 | 82 | 345 | | | | 7/11/2014 | | 940 | 877 | 63 | 441 | 17,945 | -341 | 782 | | | | 7/18/2014 | | 946 | 872 | 74 | 518 | 17,940 | -5 | 523 | | | | 7/25/2014 | | 946 | 871 | 75 | 525 | 18,587 | 647 | -122 | 2,987 | ?? | | 8/1/2014 | | 940 | 869 | 71 | 497 | 18,260 | -327 | 824 | | | | 8/8/2014 | | 937 | 878 | 59 | 413 | 17,760 | -500 | 913 | | | | 8/15/2014 | | 931 | 876 | 55 | 385 | 18,251 | 491 | -106 | | | | 8/22/2014 | | 921 | 879 | 42 | 294 | 17,317 | -934 | 1,228 | | | | 8/29/2014 | | 926 | 881 | 45 | 315 | 17,673 | 356 | -41 | 2,825 | ?? | | 9/5/2014 | | 924 | 871 | 53 | 371 | 18,021 | 348 | 23 | | | | 9/12/2014 | | 923 | 866 | 57 | 399 | 18,805 | 784 | -385 | | | | 9/19/2014 | | 917 | 866 | 51 | 357 | 18,592 | -213 | 570 | | |
Things are slowly improving.. but expect big exports to come at these price levels. "BRING IT.." btw GPRE is up today..
Edited by JonSCKs 9/24/2014 12:41
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Ethanol Exports.. Turning Higher.
