pbutler - 9/23/2014 03:31

Sounds to me like you are talking about market timing and outguessing the market Pat-pretty dangerous game. Can work-quite well for some-but many get bit hard too.

Like you I try to sell a lot ahead-usually about 50%-which 2 years ago turned into 90% and this year into 30%-I guess I feel that by definition of being a "producer" (I still prefer the term farmer) I am a perpetual long whether I like it or not. I do use hedges to lock in a floor on bushels-and it has paid pretty well last couple months-but I always feel like it is a zero sum game because I am just betting against myself and what I make on hedges I lost on real crop.

We analyze and talk and argue and all that-and you know what? I still think spreading sales out over 9 months of year beats the majority of the pros and almost always end up WELL above the average received across the board. There is an article out on farm doc where they discussed that-been a pretty reliable pattern since they started tracking it a few decades ago. Now just to have the discipline to do it consistently......

Can 20/20 hindsight marketing give me any hint if 2015 will be 2014 again, or 2013? You would have something there!