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| John, there are a lot of questions that have no answer yet, but that will have to be answered fairly soon. In my modeling, I've always tried to get into the minds of producers rather than rely on what they are saying. IMHO, what we are now seeing from the central bankers is much more frightening than anything they have said. ZIRP is telling us that, even though they know that nearly all pension funds will go broke, they are too afraid of the alternative to even give it a try. The next step seems to be that they will nationalize all pension funds - for our benefit, of course. The thinking can only be described as one aspect of the mind of a psychopath, where only the immediate result is important and the long term is ignored.
Just this alone tells me that they are scared to death of where we are.
Now, where we are in what I've always called the thirty year corn cycle is interesting too - and not totally dissimilar, IMHO. I've always said (about cycles) - the better the party, the bigger the hangover. | |
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Reserve currency
