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Central IL | "25% of producers across the country do not have a choice.. they must sell.. 15% could hold on to the past 3 crops.. it's those of us in the middle that swing one way or another that will decide it.. Any thing we can do to DRAG it OUT.. POST PONE dumping sales.. will help.. for all of us"
Jon if this is true, the 15% who can hold three crops, are those our SW brothers who have had 3 very short crops or do you think that is anyone in the heart of the corn belt? I can maybe buy in to the idea that guys in the SW are finally growing more of a "normal" crop but east of the Mississippi I would venture to say that whether they want to or not most farmers wont be able to hold more than 75% of this crop, and in isolated areas where yield reports have been much above average it might not even be 50%.
Elevators knowing this have already lined up to play "screw the farmer" as DP rates in St. Louis have jumped to .37 cents till Dec 31 on corn and 4 cents a month after and .48 cents on beans till Dec 31 and 4 cents after! Basis meanwhile has dropped 25 cents for new corn and about a dime for beans.
So it is all fine and good to know you should store it but the majority of the corn belt is going to have a hard time storing this whole thing if its a good crop, let alone if its a great crop, which it will be in large areas.
Finally if a guy hasn't sold anything up till this point, which a shocking number have not sold a bushel of corn and just a few of beans, you are going to have to get cash from somewhere. Corn or beans, I don't know which one is uglier, but I know I will have to sell a lot of corn to make the same cash impact as beans even at these prices.
All this to say I doubt that we can turn this market around just by not selling it, because the majority of farmers simply wont be able to bin this whole thing, and would rather store corn then beans. | |
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Soybean fundamentals..
