| What about the silage acres that come out of the total acres? I always assumed that's where the .92 factor came from. Obviously will be different in iowa compared to minny or Wisconsin. Well it would be nice if I could find the Averages for ALL the states.. Nationally we average .92 but Ray does have a point.. SO.. I went BACK in AGAIN.. and made some more changes.. and now I'm getting closer to PF's and Informa's numbers.. Take a look.. I corrected the Sept FSA to Final adjustment per Darrel Good's work.. http://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2014/09/update-on-corn-and-soybean-acreage.html First, the FSA estimate should be divided by 0.995 since the September estimate in the previous three years has average 99.5 percent of the final FSA estimate. Second, that result should be divided by 0.97 since the FSA final estimate has averaged 97 percent of the NASS final estimate. Alternatively, the September FSA estimate can be divided by 0.965 (0.995 X 0.97 =0 .965). Then I increased the percent harvested acreage for the I states, Minny and Mich to .97 and cut the Plains states (held Nebraska at.92) to .90 and cut Wisky to .80, Ca, Tx and NY to .85 which RAISIES my National average from .92 to .9663 which is TOO high.. but.. (where do you stop?) THOSE Changes.. makes the Nat Average Yield swing to 171.99 (more of the higher yielding states get harvested.. less of the lower yielding and dairy/silage states) which is what you would expect.. And Come up with 14.1 byn.. which is where my gut instinct is now anyway.. and pretty dang close to Informa and Pro Farmer's numbers.. So.. I think this is pretty good.. and yes now we can go back to arguing yields.. "always something.." lol. | ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | : Area harvested FSA Plantings : Yield per acre : Production | NASS | | State :------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | minus | | : 2013 : 2014 : FSA pltd adj Harv difference: 2013 : 2014 : 2013 : 2014 : FSA 2014 | FSA | | ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | : ------------ 1,000 acres ------------ : ---- bushels ---- ---- 1,000 bushels --- | | | | | | 0.965 | I states, Minny, Mich @.97, plains at .90, Wisky .80, Ca, Tx & NY .85 | | Alabama | 295 | 315 | 246 | 234 | -81 | 148.00 | 149.00 | 43,660 | 46,935 | 34,916 | -12,019 | | Arkansas | 870 | 570 | 534 | 509 | -61 | 187.00 | 184.00 | 162,690 | 104,880 | 93,586 | -11,294 | | California | 180 | 110 | 285 | 251 | 141 | 195.00 | 175.00 | 35,100 | 19,250 | 43,947 | 24,697 | | Colorado | 990 | 960 | 1,082 | 1,009 | 49 | 131.00 | 144.00 | 129,690 | 138,240 | 145,313 | 7,073 | | Delaware | 174 | 170 | 159 | 151 | -19 | 166.00 | 170.00 | 28,884 | 28,900 | 25,688 | -3,212 | | Georgia | 465 | 335 | 335 | 319 | -16 | 175.00 | 167.00 | 81,375 | 55,945 | 53,304 | -2,641 | | Illinois | 11,800 | 11,800 | 11,628 | 11,688 | -112 | 178.00 | 194.00 | 2,100,400 | 2,289,200 | 2,267,540 | -21,660 | | Indiana | 5,850 | 5,850 | 5,681 | 5,711 | -139 | 177.00 | 184.00 | 1,035,450 | 1,076,400 | 1,050,739 | -25,661 | | Iowa | 13,100 | 13,200 | 13,375 | 13,444 | 244 | 165.00 | 185.00 | 2,161,500 | 2,442,000 | 2,487,103 | 45,103 | | Kansas | 4,000 | 3,750 | 3,941 | 3,675 | -75 | 127.00 | 154.00 | 508,000 | 577,500 | 566,005 | -11,495 | | Kentucky | 1,430 | 1,450 | 1,444 | 1,377 | -73 | 170.00 | 148.00 | 243,100 | 214,600 | 203,732 | -10,868 | | Louisiana | 670 | 410 | 389 | 370 | -40 | 173.00 | 180.00 | 115,910 | 73,800 | 66,686 | -7,114 | | Maryland | 420 | 440 | 403 | 384 | -56 | 158.00 | 166.00 | 66,360 | 73,040 | 63,699 | -9,341 | | Michigan | 2,250 | 2,240 | 1,927 | 1,937 | -303 | 155.00 | 162.00 | 348,750 | 362,880 | 313,840 | -49,040 | | Minnesota | 8,150 | 8,000 | 7,853 | 7,894 | -106 | 160.00 | 170.00 | 1,304,000 | 1,360,000 | 1,341,978 | -18,022 | | Mississippi | 830 | 520 | 486 | 464 | -56 | 176.00 | 180.00 | 146,080 | 93,600 | 83,435 | -10,165 | | Missouri | 3,200 | 3,330 | 3,368 | 3,211 | -119 | 136.00 | 169.00 | 435,200 | 562,770 | 542,714 | -20,056 | | Nebraska | 9,550 | 8,750 | 8,554 | 8,155 | -595 | 170.00 | 179.00 | 1,623,500 | 1,566,250 | 1,459,696 | -106,554 | | New Jersey | 80 | 75 | 69 | 66 | -9 | 139.00 | 146.00 | 11,120 | 10,950 | 9,590 | -1,360 | | New York | 690 | 660 | 968 | 852 | 192 | 138.00 | 150.00 | 95,220 | 99,000 | 127,844 | 28,844 | | North Carolina | 870 | 800 | 775 | 738 | -62 | 142.00 | 138.00 | 123,540 | 110,400 | 101,910 | -8,490 | | North Dakota | 3,600 | 2,850 | 2,696 | 2,515 | -335 | 110.00 | 132.00 | 396,000 | 376,200 | 331,951 | -44,249 | | Ohio | 3,740 | 3,480 | 3,461 | 3,300 | -180 | 177.00 | 179.00 | 661,980 | 622,920 | 590,698 | -32,222 | | Oklahoma | 310 | 270 | 263 | 251 | -19 | 145.00 | 150.00 | 44,950 | 40,500 | 37,596 | -2,904 | | Pennsylvania | 1,090 | 1,000 | 863 | 822 | -178 | 147.00 | 148.00 | 160,230 | 148,000 | 121,697 | -26,303 | | South Carolina | 335 | 280 | 261 | 249 | -31 | 130.00 | 117.00 | 43,550 | 32,760 | 29,091 | -3,669 | | South Dakota | 5,860 | 5,500 | 5,541 | 5,168 | -332 | 138.00 | 148.00 | 808,680 | 814,000 | 764,872 | -49,128 | | Tennessee | 820 | 820 | 799 | 761 | -59 | 156.00 | 152.00 | 127,920 | 124,640 | 115,712 | -8,928 | | Texas | 2,000 | 1,800 | 2,154 | 1,897 | 97 | 138.00 | 147.00 | 276,000 | 264,600 | 278,852 | 14,252 | | Virginia | 360 | 370 | 363 | 346 | -24 | 154.00 | 143.00 | 55,440 | 52,910 | 49,461 | -3,449 | | Washington | 105 | 115 | 163 | 156 | 41 | 215.00 | 210.00 | 22,575 | 24,150 | 32,694 | 8,544 | | Wisconsin | 3,050 | 3,150 | 3,825 | 3,171 | 21 | 146.00 | 162.00 | 445,300 | 510,300 | 513,726 | 3,426 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Other States | 534 | 469 | 962 | 917 | 448 | 155.40 | 165.90 | 82,984 | 77,807 | 152,201 | 74,394 | | | | | | | | | 171.99 | 13,925,138 | 14,395,327 | 14,101,817 | -293,510 | | United States | 87,668 | 83,839 | 84,850 | 81,992 | -1,847 | 158.80 | 171.70 | 13,925,147 | 14,395,350 | 14,078,089 | -317,261 | | Pro Farmer | | | 81.76 | 0.9663 | | 172.00 | | | 14,063 | | | Informa | | | | 81.60 | | | 171.80 | | | 14,024 | | | | | | 87,927.6 | FSA derived Planted Acreage | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 80476 | -3363 | after .965 and local state adjustments | | |
edit add: the 2 total production numbers are different because of rounding.. 84.85 adjusted to 81.992 x 171.7 = 14,078 whereas when you break it down by states and sum it becomes 14,101.8.. In order to trim out the 23.77 myn bushel difference you would have to play with decimal points at the state levels.. (when do you quit?) which would clutter it up even more.. so.. that's why the difference.. fwiw.
Edited by JonSCKs 9/22/2014 07:53
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Water Street at 180+ 15Billion+
