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South Central NE | Hi Greencountry,
I am glad for your answer. I am always glad when two people can discuss something intelligently as gentlemen. Some of these threads get very disrespectful and I choose not to participate in them. Sometimes I think the pot stirrers really enjoy it!.. As to the supply and demand issue I do believe that since the funds have become involved everything has become exaggerated to some degree. They have the money to make the markets go up and down more than normal reaction would dictate. Basis is just the local buyers and sellers trying to adjust their local situation to a global futures market. The more the futures are exaggerated the more the basis will have to be exaggerated in some areas to accommodate local needs or lack of it. I do not have any idea of your age but I am almost 65 so have had a lot of experience both good and bad. I would suggest that you look into the technical side of marketing because I have come to believe over time that it will help you with defining highs and lows and timing the markets. Pay close attention to the postings of blu and jpartner. Ken Rulon also does excellent work on time. He does not post here but you can google him. I also don't know your storage situation but if you have bins use the carry to your advantage and learn to merchandise your basis. I also don't know your production experience but I would learn everything I could about Crop Revenue insurance products. We carry 85% enterprise w/production hail every year to backstop our marketing and it has paid off (and yes I know some on here would think that is crazy). But it works for us. We are all about guaranteeing revenues and doing so in advance. We would like to always harvest some of that fund money!... As to the livestock markets I would not comment. We have a cow herd, but we rent it to a real cowboy since it just is not a big interest for us, but more of an investment. I know the livestock markets can not be hedged as far out nor do they have the volume but that is about all I know. I just have too many other things going on to follow it closely... I hope our little discussion helps you out and I hope your family has a safe and successful harvest season!.. Irrigate NE
Edited by Irrigate NE 9/22/2014 06:23
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when it happend the first time was certain it would never happen again
