Columbia Basin, Ephrata, WA | Tara Farms - 9/21/2014 17:48
well lets look into your examples
1) Young Penn farmer who broke out 4 acres of deer grass -- since we can be certain that he can not hedge 4 acres of production low prices will not stop him for a few years if at all. remember he is a fall seller and like most farmers understands the market has to pay to get his crop so he plants and waits for the market to pay.
2) That wet low spot in ND is in a 160 or 320 acre field - he will plant it if mother nature allows remember he is already there and it takes about 20 min. with a 36 or 48 row planter
3) you truly believe that farmers pull into a 20 acre farm to plant 3 acres -- sorry not buying that one they wait until the 17 acres are ready and maybe don't come back for the 3 but even then I doubt it
4 ) the 1/2 section in western Kansas will simply go to a crop better suited for the ground Milo, sorghum something because guys who farm the desert can't forward sell so they GBS it and wait they never know if they are above breakeven until they have it in the bin.
acres will drop only if MN makes planting them impossible MO
Penn may not have been a good location choice on my part, they can have pretty good positive basis.
In example 3 the three acres will never get planted because that's the space where the house/shop/horse pen/driveway occupies. Point is nobody is going to drag the air seeder through the neighborhood for the other 17 acres when wheat price is in the tank. Lousy wheat price is why a lot of that kind of ground got split into 20 acre hobby farms in the first place.
The land in western Kansas going back to better suited crops still reduces corn acres. Fallow acres will probably rise a little bit in some places. Whether that increases or decreases production can probably be debated, but I'm thinking decreases.
You can find an example somewhere to disprove any scenario I can dream up (like the guy that replied below) but bottom line is acreage will fall with lower prices. Someone has planted every nook and cranny that might grow a crop the last few years. Someone somewhere will skip a nook or cranny because its just not worth it at $3.
They aren't going to skip 65 acres in Illinois. We all know that, it's just useless BS to bring it up in a thread like this one started.
Edited by Big Ben 9/21/2014 23:29
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Southern Illinois Landsale
