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Buxton ND | Was gonna do a post on who's selling but it fits just fine here
"people could be so out of touch how corn is sold in the marketplace."
Producers ARE selling....
Producers in general well always sell more grains into a falling market then a rising one.
I've see this locally many many times in the edible bean markets,EVEN once pinto's jumped $2 bucks,,,for NO OTHER REASON then to stop the selling pressure.
Now grain, OI in ZC is 130k higher then y-o-y,,,ZS 116k y-o-y,this spread has been rising.
ZS's # pretty close to ZC that's alittle odd
ZS volumes many days and or time frames has been ABOVE ZC again ODD.
Then that pesty spec fund money is ONLY 3k net long combined in C/B/W this # y-o-y was 29k
So WHY is OI higher ????????????????
Yes we have bigger crops.
Does that mean we have a bigger % sold of a bigger crop.
There's been some comments on large commercial positions,record large in beans... We have a pile of beans sold for export, (long positions by commercials) ((offset by producer sales,short hedgies)) ALOT this past week and come Thursday's export numbers are going to be wildly high on beans.
But REMEMBER *****buy the rumor,,,sell the fact*****............................................ Remember one year ago in October after Uncle had been shut down,we got 3 weeks of of VERY HIGH export numbers on beans ?????????? And the market did nothing. IT WAS ALL READY PRICED IN EACH AND EVERY DAY AS COMMERCIALS BOUGHT TO COVER THOSE EXPORTS.
Now I started this post yesterday,had to think about it for awhile,add some Lutefisk,add some beer (too much the last 2 nights) roll it around in my Norwegian head,toss in some charts/numbers/things and a dash of whatever and I'm going to stay BULLISH CORN on a hunch,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,not that I'm buying,me net ZERO corn,,,but in this area I see a fair risk/reward to legging into being long corn.
1891 asked about seasonal OI,,,I'd say its the lowest in corn Augustish,this year was Labor Day,they drop into options expiry (sometimes sharp drops) and first notice day. For the cattle guys look at this after Friday's trade............................Don't you just hate when I give you a teaser then POOF !!! | |
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gotta laugh, then sadness
