1234 - 9/14/2014 22:57

I somehow doubt that most traders have stopped to consider the fine points of the total production and regional yield distribution in anything like the detail discussed here. The only articles in the popular press aren't considering anything except huge crop and no frost. Every article I see uses the word huge, record breaking etc, etc.
I read something recently concerning the futures market that made a good deal of sense. Essentially all of the market participants, ( fund managers, speculators etc, etc) are momentum traders except the small minority of commercial hedgers (in case of grain, farmers and grain merchants). A a consequence the only thing that matters anymore is the direction and momentum. Those traders will continue to trade in a certain direction until the momentum is exhausted. Fundamentals have little to do with price and only direction. The reason for this is simple, In the case of corn for instance out of the 1.6-1.7 million contracts currently open only third or 600,000 are actual hedging contracts. That didn't use to be the case.