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Gulke
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JonSCKs
Posted 9/14/2014 14:06 (#4073996 - in reply to #4073951)
Subject: pretty firm.


Locally you could get +.25 to +.30 if you tried.. Most felt that a month ago the onset of Harvest would squash this.. However, since then Futures have fallen by.. whatever.. about that amount.. so..

At the end of July I sold $3.86 on a horrible basis with a panic sale after some rain.. I would NOT do that today.

Today at $3.38 + .30 = only $3.68..  So even If I don't see anything better than that through Next Summer.. I'm storing what's left.

I will not plant corn at that value if shown for next year.  So might as well bin it vs selling at a loss.

My average contract price is around $4.50+ on about 67% sold so with these basis we are netting just under $5.00 on contracted bushels.. once we fill those.. we'll be readjusting our program to another crop.

Cotton, Sorghum, hay or whatever but I WILL NOT sell ANYTHING below $4.00 for the rest of this crop year.  Even If I was shown.. $6.00 I'd have to defer on taxes.. so don't need the income.

I can wait longer than the funds can stay short.. I proved this last year and I'm in a better position than I was last year.  You can tell me I'm wrong all you want but that's my plan.

fwiw the dryland is running right around 100 to 110.. range of 15 to 150... is what I've heard.  I do not believe the sky high yields that USDA is using.. blame it on my lying eyes. 

If "ya'll" want to fill our markets.. "be my guest."

As I said the coop wasn't even open this weekend.. the irrigated is still.. probably 25%+ here.. even though Ks Ag Stat's has us at 17% harvested as of last week.. so probably around 22%ish for now.

ps we need moisture to plant HRW Wht.. some is being dusted in.. just like last year.. to my south that made about 15 bu or less as they burned through what was left of their subsoil..  we'll wait on rains.

The Market want's to play Chicken.. "Bring it."

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