I would have guessed that USDA would have waited to give us the bump in yields until they incorporated the reduction in expected harvested acres..  So I was surprised that they went to 171.7..  Do we get a reduction now with the expected cut in harvested acres..?? OR does USDA think another bump in yields are in the cards..???

I'm on record as being in Gulke's camp on the reduction in harvested acres.. but.. that hasn't stemmed the lower move THUS far..  ??

We're seeing "pretty firm" basis "here".. as thus far NOBODY wants to SELL at these lower prices... everyone wants to STORE.. so the Coop's are dumping stored grain on the ground while the processors and Feedlots are needing cash grain..  and needing to bid up to get it.

From below..  http://talk.newagtalk.com/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=500418&posts=27#M4070486

I noted below that we used.. 4,308 myn bushels in Q1 of 13/14.. or roughly 331 myn bushels per week.  This year we are grinding 105% for ethanol at 848 k bbls in week one 13/14 vs 927 for last week.. about 5 myn bushels more per week.. If everything else holds constant.. then that would be 336 myn bushels of weekly usage..

Given that USDA is at.. 1,181 myn bu on expected Sept 1st stocks which we will get an updated number at the end of the month.. again we harvested about 40 myn bushels less before Sept 1st this year vs last year.. we probably did not hit USDA's export target.. but we probably will add some to the ethanol grind.. so... ???  I used 1142.. called the extra ethanol grind a wash with exports and subtracted the 39 myn quant harvested..

Thus 1142 / 336 = 3.4 weeks of supply..  I assume that we are somewhere "around" 5% harvested at 14,395 = 719.75 for week 2

Thus 1142 stocks + 719.75 harvested (mostly in the south) = 1,861.75 - (336 x 2 =) 672 (mostly everywhere..) = 1,189 (mostly in the south.. and whatever is left over in the Dakota's..)

Thus far we're gonna need to bring in 14,395 / 336 = 2.33% of the Crop per week.. to hold stocks steady.. and this most be SOLD and DELIVERED to Feedlots.. Exporters.. and Processors.. someone.. like the guys around here who are harvesting and going to on farm storage.. will not count.

THUS.. with RECORD SHORTS.. who are WAITING on a FLUSH of NEW CROP SALES of PHYSICAL BUSHELS.. to add HEDGE PRESSURE so that they can cover.. will have to WAIT LONGER..  AND Commercials may ADD BUYING pressure as THEY WANT TO LOCK IN THESE LOWER PRICES.. While farmers store the crop.

At some point.. the gravity shifts to a more bouyant market.. that add's an updraft as more people are short then who want to ADD to shorts... which we may be there now.

The bean market is even more front loaded on demand..

We NORMALLY sell some at harvest.. Right now.. I am ONLY DELIVERING on CONTRACTS.. I have enough room to store my ENTIRE UNSOLD CROP.. so we may actually store more beans this year vs hauling 100 miles to deliver sub $10 beans to a processor.. IF THEY WANT THEM.. then THEY CAN COME AND GET THEM.

The Coop was actually CLOSED this weekend as nobody was harvesting.. even though technically.. Ks reported the SC District as.. 17% harvested on Corn last week.. We're probably around 20% done.. and everyone is taking their time.. letting things field dry.

Last year I brought some home to the bins to air dry to beat an inverse.. this year.. "nope." 

fwiw the SE District over in John Burns country was 60% harvested as of last week.. so they should be on the downhill slope.. we are still seeing truck movement from the Central part of the State all the way out to Garden City.. as SW Kansas was at 0.0% harvested last week.  The Eastern boys are going to be DONE before the Western Part gets started..

oh btw.. only 11% of the NW District's corn was "mature" as of last week.. and they probably saw some light frost.. only 88% of the beanies were setting pods.. with 16% dropping leaves.. N/C was at 18% mature corn 99% setting pods and 12% dropping leaves.  There could be some reduction on test weights.. in some cases it "could" be pretty severe..??

You can look below on my burn rate table for the numbers.. I assume that we ramp up the 336 number.. I believe I used 333 but start at 250 and go to 375 to AVERAGE the 333...???

"Could be wrong.."

IF harvest gets strung out through November and December.. then SO will hedge pressure.. bears will say this will only prolong the pain.. but..??  No doubt that we will be punting on acres at these prices..

"only a matter of time" before the markets have to start addressing this..