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Houston,Tx | Say it (freeze or too cold for weeks to finish - what ever the case) affects about 25% bean area.
let us assume USDA/FAS @ 85 mil harvested ac X 46bpa = 3.910 B bu
if 25% of north ac affected = 21 mil ac. 85 - 21 = 64 X 46bpa = 2.944 B bu
again, off the cuff - if the 21 mil affected acres only avg 30 - could happen. Could be less or not - just a random lowering...One thing is certain - I'm not betting on a 4 B bu or higher bu bean crop.
21 X 30 = 630 mil bu. SO, 2.944 + 630 = 3.574 B bu --- may tighen sheets a little. Demand's not gonna let up.
just playing with #'s and possibilities - part of my job. | |
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Completely off the hip figuring/hypothetic
