1234, thanks for all the research you do and for posting for all to see.

So world production of wheat exceeds consumption by somewhat less than 1%( obviously it is that marginal one percent of production where the price is set, the free market is doing its job).  Meanwhile population growth is about 1.2%  Not much of a cushion.

38% sounds like a very burdensome stocks #, but that is 4 1/2 months supply.  So if something happens to disrupt the world production of wheat, ( pests, disease, weather, transportation etc.) we have 4.5 months before we run out, less than half a year.  That seems reassuring.  I know the word reserve is a dirty word in this forum, but with a commodity like wheat that keeps almost indefinitely, a few years supply would seem like a very logical idea.  Or maybe I have just been reading too much about historical weather recently.  Lots of periods of complete crop failures for years on end, but of course it could never happen today.......