Here is the data.. as you can see the Irrigated Corn acreage is VERY stable.. the Dryland has EXPLODED since 1993 going from 0.64 myn acres to 3.21 myn acres going INTO the Drought of 2011.. a 500% increase. I wondered how much corn acreage fell after the big run up.. going into 2000. As you can see Dryland acres peaked at 1.86 myn acres in 2001 and then fell to 1.46 myn in 2003.. down only 20% However since we have almost doubled dryland acres in the state from the 01 peak of 1.86 to the 2011 peak of 3.21.. in order to hit my wag guestimate of 3.53.. with about 1.53 myn irrigated.. Dryland acres would have to fall to 2 myn acres.. about what they were in 2006.. and that seems totally reasonable to me.. They will go down.. and they will go down substantially.. imho.. When VARIABLE COSTS exceed Revenues.. as they will at these levels for Many.. People will not plant dryland corn for the fun of it "here." | Planted Corn Acreage in Kansas | | | | NASS | | | | | | | | | Dryland | Irrigated | Total | | | | | | | | | | 1993 | | 0.64 | 1.36 | 2.00 | | | 1994 | | 0.81 | 1.49 | 2.30 | | | 1995 | | 0.62 | 1.53 | 2.15 | | | 1996 | | 0.90 | 1.60 | 2.50 | | | 1997 | | 1.10 | 1.65 | 2.75 | | | 1998 | | 1.34 | 1.66 | 3.00 | | | 1999 | | 1.48 | 1.67 | 3.15 | | | 2000 | | 1.74 | 1.71 | 3.45 | | | 2001 | | 1.86 | 1.59 | 3.45 | | | 2002 | | 1.69 | 1.57 | 3.25 | | | 2003 | | 1.46 | 1.44 | 2.90 | | | 2004 | | 1.61 | 1.49 | 3.10 | | | 2005 | | 2.06 | 1.59 | 3.65 | | | 2006 | | 1.99 | 1.36 | 3.35 | | | 2007 | | 2.28 | 1.63 | 3.90 | | | 2008 | | 2.28 | 1.58 | 3.85 | | | 2009 | | 2.49 | 1.62 | 4.10 | | | 2010 | | 3.18 | 1.67 | 4.85 | | | 2011 | | 3.21 | 1.69 | 4.90 | | | 2012 | | 3.09 | 1.61 | 4.70 | | | 2013 | | 2.75 | 1.55 | 4.30 | | | 2014 | | 2.60 | 1.50 | 4.10 | | | 2015 | | | | 3.53 | Jon SCKs | | | | | | |
fwiw. I assume that the REST of the PLAINS.. which again have had a 7 MYN ACRE INCREASE since 2006 will be facing SIMILAR decisions this winter... Frankly a 3 Myn acre cut seems on the smaller side of "reasonable" to me.. Why would you plant ANY.. at a loss? Can you make $2.90 corn work on 100 bu yield potential ground VS the alternatives..?? I don't think so... "Cheers."
Edited by JonSCKs 9/7/2014 00:25
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$3 corn and prospective planted acres, the driver.
