All, 

Thanks for the comments. I will try to answer each of your questions in this post, instead of posting numerous times.

redoak - The price formation of 71'- 74' is similar to 05'-12'...but its not identical.  I probably could have found a closer match or two, but they likely would have been in an exotic forex cross, or an intraday chart someplace.   It likely would have been dismissed quickly by some readers because it wasn't corn...and corn is corn, not oil, peas, bananas or lumber...  Price action is price action, regardless of the symbol. 

Don, southernmnman, tank,

I understand your sentiments.  I am sure there were all sorts of geopolitical issues going on in  1974 and crazy weather to boot.  But these things will always exist on some level.  The weatherman can't predict the weather next week, let alone next summer.  We never know who is going to attack who tomorrow, or whether China is going to buy cargos or not.  But, what we can predict with 80% certainty is price will return to balance.  And this is going to happen in some form or fashion regardless of the news that isn't even news yet.  This is why I say that "news is assigned".  The news that is going to get credit for the 1975 rally, didn't even exist when the lows were created early in the year.... The hardcore belief that our livelihoods are controlled by the news events is something that has been engrained into our minds.  It was planted there by the previous generations, and reaffirmed today in our trucks and tractor cabs daily.  We are all subject to it.  It's on our cell phones, in our emails, on the radio, cable TV, and at the coffee shops.   Then we have to literally watch our livelihood wilt, because of a predicted heat wave, or get mowed off at the ground by a predicted storm, or watch a limit move because of a predicted government report...It is nearly impossible to avoid - yet, its the very accepting that these influences are at the core of price direction which makes us a prisoner to them.....

Here's the chart from 1974.  When the lows were posted in early 1975, the information projected by the the last three pivots stated with high probability that price will would return to the median line.  It early spring.  Most of the crop hasn't even been planted yet.  I am sure there was all sort of political drama going on, and the weather is the weather.....but grabbing the last three pivots on the chart, and using Dr. Andrew's rules, we know with a high probability that price will return to the median line.   And sure enough, even with all that going on, price returned to balance the end of August 1975.

Clay,

You are correct.  I likely oversimplified the goings on in 1975 and 1976.  The point I was trying to relay is that the price in the mid 70's were simple.  By that I mean appearing to be specific to one year.  What I am afraid is coming will be moves that are multi-year.  So someone might make a decision based on a single year's outlook, but miss the controlling swing is multiyear, and you end up being a producer that sold hard in july, and felt good about it til october when instead of making lows into the new year like expected, price rallies.  So, simple meaning one year patterns, and complex meaning multiple crops...

Thanks again....