We'll have to see how this fall's price medicine goes down.. but as I said above..

Put me down for Kansas at 3.53 for next year..  that's about a 650 k reduction.. about 15%

Yal that seems "reasonable" to me at this point.. as does a National Corn planting's number of about 86.7.. as I showed above.  That would be about halfway between Richard's trendline plot and the other data point.. just above his arrow.. that was used to generate his regression.. so.. it "seems reasonable."

"I could be wrong."

There's a LOT of other crops to grow.. we got guys putting in Alfalfa.. some have put up a fence.. Down South they USED to raise Cotton.. about 14 myn acres or thereabouts not too long ago.. Is it that INCONCEIVEABLE that some of THOSE acres go BACK..??

In California.. when they get out of their drought.. they're going NUTS.. to raise Nuts.. for Asian markets.. ripping out alfalfa stands.. and Cotton acreage out there.. I visited my relatives out there last year and didn't even recognize the place.. What HAPPENED to all the COTTON?!?  So things adjust.. it's a pretty diverse country..

Heck in some places OATS are a higher price than Corn?!?  When was the LAST time THAT happened?

In the 1980's we used to have to raise a lot of double crop to maintain our program base acres.. with "Freedom to Farm" we dropped all that.. then when 07..08  etc came along we geared up to do double cropping again..

"Yal Dog." 

I don't mind doing it but it COST $$$ and it's RISKY.. I still remember harvesting 26 bu IRRIGATED Wheat after a late freeze.. THAT HURT..(this year our dryland did 26 and the irrigated saved our bacon at 80..) but.. at these prices.. it FLAT OUT DOES NOT PENCIL.. I pay the note OFF for that equipment expansion this fall.. at this pace I would have to TRADE AGAIN.. and it DOES NOT PENCIL.. so.. instead of "working for nothing"  I think I'll just slow down.. and make do with what I have which will be PAID for.

again.. NATION WIDE we GAINED about 5% of the Soybean crop as a DOUBLE CROP since 2006.. THIS is about 3 to 4 myn acres that "could" and I'm telling you ON MY FARM WILL go "Poof" at these prices..

We'll still plant the beans..(or something.. could be sorghum..??) but the Wheat is getting the boot.

We're STILL PLANTING.. just not everything is GETTING PLANTED TWICE..!!!

Kid you not.. in my old stomping grounds.. a couple guys turned about 10,000 acres around to dryland double crop beanies one year.. ONE YEAR.. the next year..

"Yal.. We're NOT doing that again."

When you got the incentive you'll try some things.. Two years ago My Neighbor double cropped CORN.. and it worked.. but the wheat crop came off VERY EARLY.. and he was very lucky.. he raised about 180 bu of.. 20 something moisture corn that he finally picked around Thanksgiving.. next year..

"Think I'll pass."

Okay?.. get it?  These are REAL WORLD EXAMPLES of what occurred "here."

We're NOT going to buy expensive.. Seed, Fertilizer, Chemicals and apply precious Water for NOTHING... which we are ALOT CLOSER to than LAST YEAR..

I have not started talking to guys about next year.. price levels come up.. closely followed by the statement almost EVERY SINGLE PERSON HAS STATED TO ME THIS YEAR..

"Things are going to have to CHANGE."

I fully REALIZE that I live in an area where a guy can plant 50 acres to dryland corn one year.. decide "that works".. plant 850 acres the next.. and in a few years go back to planting zero.  (true story btw..)

That is how farming is "here."  Again I was amazed at the area north of me.. that chucked dryland corn this past year.. next year at THESE LEVELS.. that area will be MUCH BIGGER.. imho.

"I could be wrong."

I guess I need to go back and look at the big expansion that occurred in Kansas from 99 through about 00..01.. and the subsequent drop in acres that bottomed.. around..??  guessing 03 or the record crop (at the time) in 04..  It was probably a 25 to 30% swing for the state.. maybe more..??

homework for later I guess.. night.