Posted 9/6/2014 18:10 (#4059379 - in reply to #4059303) Subject: Farmers are not stupid or lazy but
Red River Valley
but the are creatures of habit and greedy ( to an extant ) and will always believe that better prices are just around the corner.
lastly 1234 the fact that very few farmers are forward sold this crop, which could have been locked in at a profit using nothing more than your Insurance numbers. Tells me that most farmers will seed what they have always seeded ( or relatively close ) and expect at some point later to get a price that allows them to be profitable.
Over the years many,many,many farmers have seed a crop that at the time of planting showed no chance to be profitable only to watch a market rally into profitable prices at which time they sell. Which tells me farmers will seed this next crop and wait for a profit to show it's self. #ell If my crop this year turns out the way I think it could possibly turn out ( waaaayyyyy better than it has any reason to) I will be less than 25% forward sold for next year and not any real good prospects to get anymore sold at profitable levels before we go to the field in the spring.
Under that scenario I have 2 choices either plant ground and hope for a rally to get some marketed or talk my landlords down on rents to a level that allows me to make a profit under normal yields. Which gives my landlords 2 choices drop rent to me or call my bluff so to speak and put the land on the market for another renter. At that time others have choices to make they either let the landlord have his price and pick up acres or they tell him no but at a lower price I'm willing to take the risk.
but understand one thing the landlord will have to find a renter ( because he needs to cover fixed cost ) to farm the ground at some price.
but unless you think the government is willing to become the worlds biggest renter (crp) somebody has to farm it. because that is the only thing that gives it value.
$3 corn and prospective planted acres, the driver.
