| Back to 2006 eh? The US only planted 78.3 myn in 2006... That would NOT work today.. unless we averaged 195 for US yield.
I need to update this chart.. hmm.. Kansas at 3.35 eh?.. I believe we are something like 1.8'ish irrigated and that COULD be trimmed a little on our multi-year allocations. We'll drop about 20% here..?? So that leaves.. 2.4'ish dryland...?? I could see a 500 k to 750 k drop.. maybe more..??
| US Crop Acreage | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | NASS | | | | | | | | | | | | 2013 | | | | Corn | | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | | Yld | 13 - 06 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | AR | 320 | 240 | 190 | 560 | 440 | 410 | 390 | 500 | 710 | 1,000 | | 187 | 810 | 426.32% | | | CO | 1,200 | 1,100 | 1,000 | 1,200 | 1,250 | 1,150 | 1,330 | 1,400 | 1,420 | 1,250 | | 131 | 250 | 25.00% | | | IL | 11,750 | 12,100 | 11,300 | 13,200 | 12,100 | 12,300 | 12,600 | 12,500 | 12,800 | 12,200 | | 178 | 900 | 7.96% | | | IN | 5,700 | 5,900 | 5,500 | 6,600 | 5,700 | 5,700 | 5,900 | 5,900 | 6,250 | 6,100 | | 177 | 600 | 10.91% | | | IA | 12,700 | 12,800 | 12,600 | 14,300 | 13,300 | 13,700 | 13,400 | 14,200 | 14,200 | 14,000 | | 165 | 1,400 | 11.11% | | | KS | 3,100 | 3,650 | 3,350 | 3,700 | 3,850 | 3,800 | 4,850 | 5,100 | 4,700 | 4,500 | | 127 | 1,150 | 34.33% | | | KY | 1,210 | 1,250 | 1,120 | 1,420 | 1,210 | 1,220 | 1,340 | 1,440 | 1,650 | 1,600 | | 170 | 480 | 42.86% | | | LA | 420 | 340 | 300 | 750 | 520 | 700 | 510 | 570 | 540 | 750 | | 173 | 450 | 150.00% | | | MI | 2,200 | 2,250 | 2,200 | 2,500 | 2,400 | 2,400 | 2,400 | 2,550 | 2,650 | 2,800 | | 155 | 600 | 27.27% | | | MN | 7,500 | 7,300 | 7,300 | 8,200 | 7,700 | 7,700 | 7,700 | 8,100 | 8,750 | 8,700 | | 160 | 1,400 | 19.18% | | | MO | 2,950 | 3,100 | 2,700 | 3,500 | 2,800 | 3,100 | 3,150 | 3,250 | 3,600 | 3,450 | | 138 | 750 | 27.78% | | | NE | 8,250 | 8,500 | 8,100 | 9,100 | 8,800 | 9,400 | 9,150 | 10,000 | 10,000 | 10,200 | | 170 | 2,100 | 25.93% | | | NY | 980 | 990 | 950 | 1,060 | 1,090 | 1,100 | 1,050 | 1,040 | 1,170 | 1,250 | | 138 | 300 | 31.58% | | | NC | 820 | 750 | 790 | 1,100 | 900 | 860 | 910 | 900 | 860 | 950 | | 142 | 160 | 20.25% | | | ND | 1,800 | 1,410 | 1,690 | 2,500 | 2,550 | 1,900 | 2,050 | 2,300 | 3,600 | 3,900 | | 110 | 2,210 | 130.77% | | | OH | 3,350 | 3,450 | 3,150 | 4,000 | 3,300 | 3,400 | 3,450 | 3,500 | 3,900 | 3,950 | | 177 | 800 | 25.40% | | | PA | 1,400 | 1,350 | 1,350 | 1,450 | 1,350 | 1,350 | 1,350 | 1,400 | 1,460 | 1,500 | | 147 | 150 | 11.11% | | | SD | 4,650 | 4,450 | 4,500 | 5,000 | 4,750 | 5,000 | 4,550 | 5,200 | 6,150 | 5,900 | | 138 | 1,400 | 31.11% | | | TX | 1,830 | 2,050 | 1,760 | 2,100 | 2,300 | 2,200 | 2,300 | 1,950 | 1,850 | 2,400 | | 138 | 640 | 36.36% | | | WI | 3,600 | 3,800 | 3,650 | 4,050 | 3,800 | 3,750 | 3,900 | 4,150 | 4,350 | 4,200 | | 146 | 550 | 15.07% | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 158.8 | | | | | Total | 80,930 | 81,759 | 78,327 | 92,888 | 85,982 | 87,035 | 88,192 | 92,282 | 97,155 | 97,379 | NASS | 19,052 | 24.32% | | | | 2.06 | 2.00 | 3.04 | 4.20 | 4.06 | 3.55 | 5.18 | 6.25 | 6.89 | 95,400 | WASDE | | | Total Acreage | 322,329 | 317,802 | 318,610 | 320,369 | 324,819 | 319,250 | 316,694 | 315,143 | 326,320 | 325,600 | | |
Put me down for Kansas at 3.53 for next year.. down 650'ish
I think the south could switch a myn acres plus back to cotton.. I'll let others chime in on their locations..
hmm.. 91.6 - 1.6 FSA adjustment = 90 for 2014 + 1.5 switch back from beanies in the cornbelt.. - 1.8 myn to Cotton - 3 out of the plains = 86.7
86.7 x .92 = 79.76 x 168 = 13,400 for 14/15
We could see exports pushing 2,200 if South America dumps acres on the first crop..
Tara.. quote of 4.35'ish is from Chip Flory on Market Rally yesterday.. his points.. credit him.. sounds good. Guys will go to beans first to save $$$.. just like in the US this year.
(good game today btw.. "whew")
got to go prep some bins.. later.
Ethanol margins shrank by 25% yesterday alone.. End users can NOT afford to let these cheap prices go without locking some in..
Edited by JonSCKs 9/6/2014 15:11
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$3 corn and prospective planted acres, the driver.
