|
Napanee, Ontario | First to your point about feed efficiency actually runs counter to your idea.
You actually feed a lot more corn to cattle Because of that feed inefficiency, relative to hogs and chickens. Each lb of gain, takes way more corn.
Then when you consider that lbs of beef consumed is close to chicken and ahead of pork, factor in the conversion... There is a lot more more corn into cattle than the any other meat.
Next, about this assumption that most on this thread seem to hold - that heifer retention is increasing to an end of expanding the herd currently, maybe you need to go read the July 25 inventory report.
Replacement heifer counts are at their lowest levels in history, and are still on a decline, in line with the herd decline. The problem is that people are cashing every calf out, because they believe , like others on here seem to think, the price is going to crash in the near term, and they are trying to get it while the getting is good. That and guys are older than any other segment of Ag, are tired of the labor headache and low returns that have belaguered the cow business for years so this is their chance and many are pulling the pin. There seems to be a lot of dynamics that crop farmers fail to understand, or take for granted. Yes this s a commodity market, but it is not the same commodity market. Further, most heifers that are being kept are just shoring up tr massive culling that has been /is happening since you can get 1500 bucks for a meat cow these days.
We heard the same rhetoric after the Jan report - anecosotal evidence and assumptions that these high prices MUST mean that the herd is expanding. So show me the numbers. Where. We have reports, they don't support the statements I'm seeing above. I saw Joartner tell everyone on here last October that his charts were pointing to a correction, because any time something moved vertical, it's bound to crash. That was a year and 60 cents ago.
I'm not saying these high prices are going to remain forever, but i think many are underestimating the scale of the problem which brought us these prices, and the length of time it's going to take to fix it.
Edited by OldMcdonald 9/6/2014 11:39
| |
|
new highs in cattle
