Death comes to us all. Life's but a walking shadow | Some of the comment about world wheat stocks got me a little curious about the overall situation so I dug up this July report from the FAO, http://www.fao.org/3/a-i3899e.pdf. It's a long report but there is a two or three page section near the top that summarizes the production, stocks and consumption situation.
I've commented on this before but the way they report "stocks to use" is very misleading when compared to "production vs. consumption". The fact is that total world grain production is only up about 1% above consumption and even wheat isn't up by that much.
As for "stocks to use" of some 38%, this statistic is very misleading because they are counting stocks at the end of the winter wheat harvest that will invariably be consumed before the next harvest. They haven't counted the spring wheat harvest nor the Southern hemisphere harvest. It is kind of like saying I'll need a whole bin full of grain to feed my cow herd for a year but now that I've got only a third of my crops harvested I'll definitely have more than enough to feed them all year.
Certainly wheat supplies are adequate at present but remember if a strong "el nino" occurs and there is a 70% chance for one (how strong?) both Australia and South American very well may have a reduced wheat harvest.
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Long KC, As for your questions about world wheat stocks.
