Blu,

Your question is a good one.  I cannot do your question justice at this time, but I will just highlight a few things here as we head into this "1974 frost scare" LIKE rally.  Like previously noted, there are some uncanny similarities in price structure of 1974 and the current corn market.  Some have noted that 1974 had a frost scare that created a huge rally to new highs.  I don't know the "official" reason for the rally of 1974, but structurally, we are in completely different markets, and this should be noted to keep it in perspective.

1974's highs actually started from earlier lows in 1971, where  price rallied out of the lows, consolidated, then traded to $3.50 in 1973.  Price pulls back, made a little inside pivot, made an attempt at new highs but failing.  Price pulled back and rallied a second time, this time making new highs, then pulled back into this time frame of 1974.  From this date in 1974 price rallied to make new all time highs, then price came unraveled.  A few important things to note, first the emotional zone where price ignited from and was never backfilled, the new highs on the third rally confirmed the pivot as a major structural level, and the last pivot in the swing is the minor structural level.  This minor structural level is no different than the same swing on a one minute chart - even though this is a daily chart.  Price spent three years from the low to the high....then ironically spent three years before retesting the untested emotional zone.  

If you zoom out and look at 1974, you can see these same highlights and price worked sideways til testing the emotional zone below in 1977.  Price then rallied and attempted new highs, but failed....in fact it, it was two decades before price made new all time highs.

When we look at the current continuous corn chart, we see much the same thing.  Price got all excited down low, and went vertical, eventually making new all time highs.  Price then collapsed in 2008...Here we should note, that as ugly as 2008 was, price did NOT violate the uptrend - just like 1973.  Again price made the little inside swing, then like the 1974, rallied to new all time highs - twice.  The rally in 1974 was because of a "frost scare".  The rally in 2012 was due to the drought.  Price then came unglued much like it did in 1974 after the frost scare - again violating major structural levels.   IMHO, there are significant differences between today and 1974 frost scare.  In 1974 an uptrend existed, with no structural price level violated.  Today, we have been in a two year down trend with multiple price levels being crushed, and we are closer to an intermediate low, than a high.  1974 price formation lasted 3 years up , and 3 years down.  In the current situation, corn rallied 7 years,.....  But if the 1974 rally took three years for the energy to be restore before even attempting new highs, why would we expect "multi-year lows" as has been claimed here to be in the making -to happen after only two years down on this chart?  I realize that one example of something similar is not a statistical significant sample...but there are hundreds and hundreds more example available for research.   I am not going to do it here, but every pivot created post 1974 had it making in the earlier price structure.  So using lessons from the past, and knowing that   "Every Action in Price has its own Reaction in Price",  we can assume that similar price action will exist in our future as existed post 1974.  I would submit that it that all the information needed to accurately predict price in 2030 already exists today.  I am not saying I can do it...just that the information is already there.  What is going to make this very challenging time for producers is the magnitude of the controlling price structure.  In 1974, you had "normal" season rallies - meaning they made sense to producers.  The rally in late 1975 might have been blamed on a drought, or a early frost scare, but it likely made sense to producers.  Similarly in 1976.  The difference this time is the current controlling price structure we are dealing with - is the mother of all price formations.  It will likely control price for decades.  So, the rallies will be bigger, and "not normal".  There will be counter seasonal rallies when there shouldn't be  - just do to the fact price needs to react to the controlling price structure.  And....the downside of that  - like we have been experiencing, the unraveling of price will be longer than normal too.  If you look closely at the highlighted zones, there is a lot of similarity in the recent free fall of price - and we are closer to an intermediate low, than the high like 1974.   Like mentioned before, we are dealing with a huge "in time and price"  structure, so if you can stand the pain, I think there are better pricing opportunities for producers ahead as price snaps back....Hope that makes some sense.