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JonSCKs

Posted 8/25/2014 11:38 (#4037564 - in reply to #4037511)
Subject: Still need to figure in the Prevented Plantings and Exports..

There's a couple curves that the bears are going to have to negotiate..

A) There will PROBABLY be some adjustments for prevented plantings per the FSA report at some point on Soybean acreage.. (Ray J pointed out that might not happen until the October or January reports though..?? although if it's there.. USDA may start to offset by lower yields to compensate for it.. ?? or not..??

There's a quarter myn acre adjustment's coming for BOTH Minny and Bison land.. and 100 k in Arkansas..

per the FSA.. 827,131 acres.. at 45 bu yield = 37 myn of POTENTIAL Crop Size REDUCTION... ??

http://www.fsa.usda.gov/FSA/webapp?area=newsroom&subject=landing&topic=foi-er-fri-cad

1-Aug-14	2014 PREVENTED ACRES REPORTED TO FARM SERVICE AGENCY
Prevented	Column Labels
Row Labels	BARLEY	CORN	COTTON- ELS	COTTON- Upland	OATS	RICE	SORGHUM	SOYBEANS	SUGAR BEETS	SUGARCANE	WHEAT	Grand Total
ALABAMA		5,634		2,596	0	0	0	1,634		0	183	10,047
ALASKA	0				0						0	0
ARIZONA	0	0	416	24,934	0		0		0		0	25,349
ARKANSAS	0	84,727		7,418	187	104,773	7,886	102,957			156,672	464,621
CALIFORNIA	3,846	9,955	43,418	2,813	1,917	22,960	0		0	0	11,790	96,698
COLORADO	4,651	50,981			164		7,440	0	0		11,586	74,822
CONCTICUT	0	26			0			0			0	26
DELAWARE	0	10			0		0	0			5	14
FLORIDA		2,874		1,153	0	0	0	35		0	0	4,061
GEORGIA	0	841	0	487	0		0	525		0	2,963	4,816
IDAHO	1,702	4,676			0		0	0	171		4,191	10,740
ILLINOIS	0	23,279			0	0	54	12,807			10,705	46,845
INDIANA	0	15,503			0		0	5,254			3,584	24,340
IOWA	0	6,693			78		0	3,642	0		0	10,413
KANSAS	0	46,281		0	0		19,299	4,837			22,171	92,587
KENTUCKY	0	8,097		0	0		0	1,420		0	24,860	34,377
LOUISIANA	0	25,190		0	255	411	152	23,213		0	33,220	82,441
MAINE	0	60			0		12	0	0		0	72
MARYLAND	30	46			0		0	19			171	267
MASACUSET	0	35			0		0	0			0	35
MICHIGAN	235	26,050			160		0	5,146	0		5,190	36,782
MINNESOTA	1,444	395,282			3,446		9	254,129	1,093		38,762	694,165
MISISIPPI		93,295	0	1,409	0	8,236	1,240	10,589			104,592	219,361
MISSOURI	0	24,759		6,935	0	15,212	219	24,351			57,880	129,355
MONTANA	837	895			239		0	8	0		17,415	19,394
NEBRASKA	0	9,767		0	0		6	1,780	0		720	12,273
NEVADA	36	1,547			156		0				8,482	10,221
NEW HAMP		0			0		0	0				0
NEW MEXCO	0	596	457	4,099	0		0				9	5,160
NEW YORK	112	42,510			1,280	0	0	13,723			6,638	64,263
NEWJERSEY	0	61			0		0	429	0		75	564
NO CAROLN	0	601		0	36		185	1,624	0	0	10,526	12,972
NO DAKOTA	40,536	421,461			2,814		8	258,827	313		673,708	1,397,669
OHIO	0	36,719			28		2	20,479			5,106	62,333
OKLAHOMA	0	676		809	0		12,609	1,539			10,401	26,034
OREGON	20	1,983			0		0	0	2,146		2,971	7,120
PENSLVANA	0	3,935			23		0	1,680			491	6,129
PUERTO RI		0				0	0	0		0		0
RHODE ISL		0			0		0	0				0
S CAROLIN	0	6,423		471	21	0	0	1,274		0	2,359	10,548
S DAKOTA	723	75,177			443		8,344	43,253	0		20,111	148,051
TENNESSEE	0	5,761		5,409	0	0	225	8,444			15,271	35,110
TEXAS	0	9,041	9,277	25,892	40	74,126	11,936	646	0	0	96,731	227,691
UTAH	0	0			0		0	0			0	0
VERMONT	0	966			0		0	46			0	1,012
VIRGIN IS		0								0		0
VIRGINIA	0	47		63	0		0	564			184	858
WASHNGTON	1	0			0		0	0	0		30	31
WEST VA	0	5			0		0	0			0	5
WISCONSIN	174	97,584			822		5	22,256	0		173	121,014
WYOMING	61	44			96		0	0	0		295	496
Grand Total	54,409	1,540,093	53,567	84,486	12,206	225,718	69,631	827,131	3,723	0	1,360,219	4,231,18

B) The other thing is EXPORTS.. Like LAST YEAR.. Processors are NOT the ONLY ones who will be NEEDING BEANS...

Soybeans

					\|------Next Marketing Year------\|
Week	Weekly	Accumulated	Net	Outstanding	Net	Outstanding
Ending	Exports	Exports	Sales	Sales	Sales	Sales

06/12/2014	192,249	43,268,279	97,930	1,889,970	285,800	10,307,230
06/19/2014	98,229	43,366,508	317,157	2,108,898	457,671	10,764,901
06/26/2014	126,265	43,492,773	40,596	2,023,229	431,199	11,196,100
07/03/2014	89,466	43,582,239	56,261	1,990,024	526,475	11,722,575
07/10/2014	94,755	43,676,994	37,658	1,932,927	560,978	12,283,553
07/17/2014	162,675	43,839,669	226,681	1,996,933	2,451,103	14,734,656
07/24/2014	105,424	43,945,093	187,433	2,078,942	1,268,695	16,003,351
07/31/2014	53,926	43,999,019	94,903	2,119,919	1,008,584	17,011,935
08/07/2014	146,939	44,145,958	61,378	2,034,358	1,081,768	18,093,703
08/14/2014	93,397	44,239,355	(89,624)	1,851,337	1,420,601	19,514,304

So the processor will need beans.. the river will need beans.. the train loaders will need beans.. etc.. Just like LAST YEAR when soybeans continued to show strength.. ALL WINTER LONG.

and we need more corn Acres NEXT year than we got this year.. At current corn prices we could get another 5 to 6 myn acre cut in 2015 corn plantings... per 1234's very good work.

Edited by JonSCKs 8/25/2014 11:42

Sept beans and meal - Maizeing : 8/25/2014 10:11
- RE: I was wrong - Pitt : 8/25/2014 10:32
  - RE: I was wrong - Sat : 8/25/2014 10:34
    - RE: I was wrong - donmoffat : 8/25/2014 10:58
      - Still need to figure in the Prevented Plantings and Exports.. - JonSCKs : 8/25/2014 11:38
        
        RE: Still need to figure in the Prevented Plantings and Exports.. - RayJenkins : 8/25/2014 12:01
        
        RE: Still need to figure in the Prevented Plantings and Exports.. - Sat : 8/25/2014 12:40
        
        I can see that.. - JonSCKs : 8/25/2014 12:51

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