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Ontario's middle east | For starters, I think you covered enough scenarios that you can't be completely wrong....... May have to branch out from the 20/20 hindsight thing? Run with other advisors that just cover everything then they can say "see" later? I'm joking of course.
You make some good points and I don't know the answers. What I do know is we have to make today's decisions with current info, not stuff we find out next winter. I wholeheartedly believe we will see a bottoming process in corn at some point and a rally. The "when" and "how much" I have no clue on. It's pretty tough to accept that good profits were passed up on this crop and the limiting losses mode is even tougher. I get that, but it is what it is now. We now have to decide can we afford to keeping shouldering downside risk of maybe another $1/bu? If the answer is yes, great, there has likely been some good management to put you in that position. If the answer is no, denial and procrastination isn't the best course of action IMO. There are sound and affordable strategies to limit risk right now and keep some upside potential.
Jon, gotta be real careful with that "never again" thing. There are lots of guys that sold profitable prices spring of '12 that felt left out that summer and swore off forward contracting. That has not worked well for, at this point, 4 crop years. It seems to me it is almost imminent that they will be back forward selling just before this bear market ends..... I could be totally wrong on that hunch, but we are making plans to margin it now. I'm not a promoter of just forward selling any number, I seldom recommend making big moves, watch seasonal trends and advocate selling to insurance guarantees. | |
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Maizeing, continue discussion on price setting
