I can't remember without looking it up.. but think it was the 2011 crop.. Offered $4.00 and change N/C Corn.. not excited about it but.. "could get worse.."  So I locked a reasonable.. like..1/3 in..  

That year was really bad.. we got to High Moisture Harvest and a) some corn was going to fall over.. b) we had the time/resources to go get it.. and c) the feedlot was offering an inverted carrot that was going to be better at that time vs later.. and d) we needed the $$$

So my 1/3 forward Contract which became.. probably 65% along with the 50% we picked HMC put me.. 15% over priced.. which I rode all winter.. at roughly a $2.00 loss..  I ended up buying out of it around.. $6'ish.

Not really interested in EVER getting in THAT position again.. Even if I leave a quarter or two on the table each year.. NOT worth it.. and Frankly I was lucky to come out that well..   That's why I didn't sell as much of the 2012 crop and fortunately I had SOMETHING even though THAT crop was reduced to sell in August of 2012..

In the August 2013 WASDE USDA forecast the 13/14 corn carry out at 1,837.. here we are at 1,181 with probably a quant adjustment lower yet to go..?? 1,076'ish?

On the Beanies.. they forecasted 295 myn bushels.. here we are today at 140 with a NEGATIVE 94 myn bu residual.. so who knows how that will end up.. but.. that 94 could be +35 crop revision and +20 imports with the Real Carry out # at 99...???   or something else..??  idk..  maybe they actually get close to finding all 94.. I don't see how but I digress..

Anywho they're already at a -155 myn overstate.. btw we have about 800 myn of soybeans on the export books to go..

So adding that to THIS year's estimate of 430.. (btw there's about a myn acres of PP in the Beanies.. which would take 45 myn off the get go.. plus what ever they reduce carry in by.. assuming they do.. plus how ever much ELSE they've understated going forward..)

So 430 - 155 = 275.. 20 myn less than they were forecasting for this year LAST year.. and an expected average price of around $10.75 cash to the farmer or.. about??  $11'ish on the CME..  btw.. USDA is at $13 for REALIZED 13/14.. only a $2.25 miss..

So why believe them now?

I do agree with Sat's argument about the funds..  fwiw.

However, it just seems like the forward contractors get KILLED in these markets.. I've got more on this year.. but.. "nothing special"

$11'ish beans.. about what i could get today out of the cash market..