Nice work on the data.. I don't see Ks bumping 165 for a number of reasons.. 1) soil moisture depletion.. we had to irrigate to establish a stand and we started off bone dry. 2) Populations have been cut back as people could not rule out another dry year at planting time 3) 2009 was cool and wet. 4) 2014 has been cool and things look good thus far.. so I'm not saying that we might not have a good crop coming.. but 10 bu over the record..?!? 2009 was a DANG GOOD year.. 2014.. thus far has been quite the turn around from expectations.. so.. ?.. 140.. 145.. maybe we match 150.. for Kansas maybe.. bump that a little.. but 10..?!? That being said.. it does "feel" like this crop is pushing 14+ byn nationally.. I heard on the radio that NASS or someone had already seen about 2.5 myn acres destroyed.. with a couple more to come in.. what's the harvested number? hmmm.. 83.8.. and say..??? by the time they add more acres to destroyed?? maybe.. half is corn.. say.. 82 harvested.. okay so 14,000 / 82 = 170.. HECK NO on 175!!.. 168.. 170.. 171.. hmmm... "maybe." I'm getting a little more defensive.. as Ray posts above.. making sure we got enough room to hold things. 14,300 would take.. 174.4... I don't think so.. but...??? On new record years we do tend to bust.. 8 .. 10 .. 12 bu more.. so..??? Not going to say it doesn't happen.. I don't believe Kansas can do that for the reasons listed above.. but parts of the cornbelt appear to be looking decent.. "uh-hum" There ya go.. this will CERTAINLY bottom it now.. Jon(the bear..) ??? Okay got my bearish post out for the year... met my quota. ;-) |