Aren't the 469 and 459 basically the same baler except one has a 4 ft wide x 6 ft max dia bale and the other a 4 ft wide by 5 ft max dia bale?

I have a JD 569 and looked at it the same as you - this will last my lifetime at a couple hundred bales/year.  The mega wide pickup works incredibly well. I agree on ordering the larger tires.  The monitor works very well even on a smaller, older, open station tractor. I have settled on making 5 ft wide by about 66"(5-1/2 ft) diameter bales rather than 72" (6 ft) diameter as the 66" are lighter and much easier to handle than the 72".

What size bales do you want to make?  As you mention, the cost of a new baler, spread over time doesn't look so bad compared to hay getting rained on because a baler isn't working. A baler is one of those things you look at the ROI over time rather than just the initial cost, imho.

I would choose the new JD baler (459-569) based on the size bale you want to make.

Good luck.

Jim