Death comes to us all. Life's but a walking shadow | I'm not sure asking how high cattle needs to be to displace corn growing on prime Illinois ground is the right question. Since productivity varies so much by location and soil there will be a whole range of points where cattle will again become competitive with crops. And don't forget soybeans, $12-$14 soybeans are part of the equation and soybeans grow well even where corn doesn't.
I think all of the responses given here were valid, even Garvo's. Garvo is correct in saying that: "there is more to farming than just economics, there is the psychological will to start the long term project like building good cow herd." You better plan on five to ten years of no profit. Rebuilding a cow herd is going to be much harder than increasing crop acres. We can increase or decrease corn acres by 5-10 million in year. It's going to take much more economic incentive to rebuild the herd.
McDonald gave you some economic numbers but my opinion is that you will need to get calves to $2 and keep them there several years before you'll see significant herd rebuilding. Maybe that's because I've built two cow herds and was force to liquidate them both and know how much work is involved. But maybe some of these younger fellows who haven't experienced those poor years won't be so intimidated. It reminds me of those crop farmers how tried to get started in the '80's and how cautious they are today.
I think that those cow calf fellows that stuck it out over the last twenty years are the real heroes here and they deserve some credit for their perseverance.
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Comparative analysis cattle vs corn
