white shadow - 5/8/2014 09:13 Won't be bullish long term if we loose grain elevator competition. We only had one grain buyer for two generations. Now we have two. Don't want to go back to just one. Deferred payments at risk, DP grain at risk, and farmer equity in COOP at risk. This could go bad in a big hurry. Elevator went over basis cliff on corn last summer, upside down on basis on inventory this winter and spring and poor managed freight positions bleeds red fast. Now, if they are also a crop input supplier there borrowing needs are huge right now laying in seed, fertilizer and chemical. Selling these at break-even to a loss, waiting for the likes of MONSANTO to come in this fall and make them whole with back-side sales assistance. Now, this spring and summer, if they had a run on deferred payments in grain combined with borrowing needs of crop inputs------ would they have a big enough credit line to pay everyone? Farmer Joe better be paying attention to financials of the company he sells grain to. EDIT--- A huge run in futures in grains right now would be disaster for a grain company in a situation like that above. Would have to make margin calls on hedged grain inventories they can't move or get out of efficiently because of rail. Margin calls on inventory would really soak up working capital.