![](/profile/get-photo.asp?memberid=3880&type=profile&rnd=594) Texas/New Mexico Stateline | McFarmer - 3/31/2014 17:26
You have first hand knowledge of your area, but are you sure you are in a drought, and not just returning to normal from a wetter than average time period ?
All we have to go by is 100 years of rainfall records. And we have been at about 30-40% of our long term average the past 3 summers. As Mr. Wilson said, the "normal" for us is to have several years strung together that are below average, and a much above year that is figured into the average. We are over-due for a "wet" year, and I would also say looking at rain records we are overdue for a "wet" couple years.
Knowing the past weather history beyond the 100 year records we have are more difficult to analyze. And prone to speculation. Things like tree rings, and Native American cultures like the Anasazi peoples that died out about 800 years ago. They apparently enjoyed a couple centuries of wetter weather, to only be challenged with a very long drought.
And tree rings are not as cut and dry, ahem, as some folks would make them. There is no way to guarantee that two or more small rings were not made in one year. It has been shown with early and late wet seasons, with a dry period in between two rings can be made in one calendar year. OR wait, was it 2 dry years that made those two small rings? Hard to say. |